A Guide to the Evening


The below is a list of the key seats expected to declare first after polls close tonight. With each of them we have given an indication of what result to expect if our forecast is correct, and what a different result might mean.

Houghton and Sunderland

Should declare around 11 pm. We expect the following result:

Labour : 24,138
Conservative : 8596
UKIP : 4274

This is a majority of c. 15,500.

  • A Labour vote above 25,000 indicates that the Labour vote is holding up very well in core areas
  • A Labour vote below 22,500 indicates that the Labour vote is falling away
  • A Conservative vote of over 10,000 indicates that the Conservative strategy of eating into core Labour electorate is working
  • A Conservative vote of over 12,500 indicates a Conservative landslide

Beware of reading too much into this first result. This is a safe Labour seat and will swing in a different way to a marginal.

Sunderland Central

Should declare around 11:30 pm. We expect the following result:

Labour : 24,145
Conservative : 11413
UKIP : 3835

This is a majority of c. 12,750.

  • A Labour vote above 26,000 indicates that the Labour vote is holding up very well in core areas
  • A Labour vote below 22,000 indicates that the Labour vote is falling away
  • A Conservative vote of over 13,000 indicates that the Conservative strategy of eating into core Labour electorate is working
  • A Conservative vote of over 15,000 indicates a Conservative landslide

Beware of reading too much into this result. This is a safe Labour seat and will swing in a different way to a marginal.

Washington and Sunderland West

Should declare around 12:00 am. We expect the following result:

Labour : 23,481
Conservative : 8,592
UKIP : 3510

This is a majority of c. 15,000.

  • A Labour vote above 25,000 indicates that the Labour vote is holding up very well in core areas
  • A Labour vote below 21,000 indicates that the Labour vote is falling away
  • A Conservative vote of over 10,000 indicates that the Conservative strategy of eating into core Labour electorate is working
  • A Conservative vote of over 12,500 indicates a Conservative landslide

Beware of reading too much into this result. This is a safe Labour seat and will swing in a different way to a marginal.

Kettering

Should declare around 00:30 am. We expect the following result:

Conservative : 30,872
Labour : 13,836

This is a majority of c. 17,000.

  • A Labour vote above 15,000 indicates that there is a swing to Labour across the country
  • A Labour vote below 12,000 indicates that the Labour vote is falling away
  • A Conservative vote of over 32,000 indicates the possibility of a landslide
  • A Conservative vote below 28,000 indicates a swing to Labour

Beware of reading too much into this result. This is a safe Conservative seat and will swing in a different way to a marginal.

Swindon North

Should declare around 00:30 am. We expect the following result:

Conservative : 28,396
Labour : 17,232

This is a majority of c. 11,000.

  • A Labour vote above 19,000 indicates that there is a swing to Labour across the country
  • A Labour vote below 15,000 indicates that the Labour vote is falling away
  • A Conservative vote of over 30,000 indicates the possibility of a landslide
  • A Conservative vote below 26,000 indicates a swing to Labour

Beware of reading too much into this result. This is a safe Conservative seat and will swing in a different way to a marginal.

Nuneaton

Should declare around 01:00 am. We expect the following result:

Conservative : 22,652
Labour : 18,313

This is a majority of c. 4,300 and is the first marginal seat that should declare. It was the declaration in 2015 that signalled the national swing.

  • A Labour vote above 19,500 indicates that there is a swing to Labour across the country
  • A Labour vote below 16,500 indicates a Labour collapse
  • A Conservative vote of over 25,000 indicates the possibility of a landslide
  • A Conservative vote below 20,000 indicates a significant swing to Labour

Swindon South

Should declare around 01:15 am. We expect the following result:

Conservative : 24,442
Labour : 19,077

This is a majority of c. 5,300 and is the second marginal seat that should declare. It was the second declaration in 2015 that signalled the national swing.

  • A Labour vote above 20,500 indicates that there is a swing to Labour across the country
  • A Labour vote below 17,000 indicates a Labour collapse
  • A Conservative vote of over 26,500 indicates the possibility of a landslide
  • A Conservative vote below 22,000 indicates a significant swing to Labour

Wrexham

Should declare around 01:30 am. We expect the following result:

Conservative : 15,293
Labour : 13,966

This is a majority of c. 1,300 and is the first Welsh marginal seat that should declare.

The Conservatives should take this seat from Labour on the back of UKIP votes moving to them (there is no UKIP candidate in this seat in 2017)

  • A Labour vote above 15,000 indicates that the Labour vote is holding up in Wales
  • A Labour vote below 12,500 indicates a Labour collapse in Wales
  • A Conservative vote of over 16,500 indicates the possibility of a very good night
  • A Conservative vote below 13,500 indicates that UKIP votes are not moving to the Conservatives as expected

Angus

Should declare around 02:00 am. We expect the following result:

SNP : 20,654
Conservative : 18,595

This is a majority of c. 2,000 and is the first Scottish marginal seat that should declare.

You should view this seat as an indicator of the Conservative attack on the SNP

  • An SNP vote above 22,500 indicates that the SNP vote is holding up well in Scotland
  • An SNP vote below 18,500 indicates that the SNP are likely to have a poor night
  • A Conservative vote of over 20,000 indicates the possibility of a very good night in Scotland with seat gains from the SNP well into double figures
  • A Conservative vote below 17,000 indicates that the Conservatives are not going to take many SNP seats

How To Use These Seat Guides

The guides above are indicators only. In particular, the first few seats to declare are urban locations that are heavily weighted towards Labour. Swings here may not be repeated across the country and indeed a swing against Labour here might still mean a swing towards Labour across the county (and vice versa).

What you should look for is the same trend in three or more “safe” seats. There are four different indicators above for each seat and you should look for the same indicator (e.g. “Conservative Lanslide”) to appear in three or more “safe” seats before assuming a trend. You’ll notice that the GFK exit poll on the evening will adjust after each result, but it will not adjust a lot until the more marginal seats are declared. In the same way, you should look for the marginal seats to confirm a trend that is appearing in the safer seats.

Wrexham and Angus should be seen as key indicators for Wales and Scotland. Look for the trends above to be confirmed in later seats.

Remember, it is the swing in the marginal seats that is key. By the time Angus declares the national position should be clear and the forecast on the BBC and Sky broadly indicative of the final result.

Don’t forget to check our twitter feed overnight as we will post our own projections based on the early results – @forecastuk

This page may be updated later today if our forecast changes

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