8 Days to Go.
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
- The surge towards the Conservatives is slowing down
- Evidence continues to come in of a high level of support for the SNP in Scotland
- We now predict three seats for UKIP – Clacton, South Thanet and Thurrock
Changes indicated from Tuesday’s forecast.
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 35.03% (-0.09%) | 281 (+2) |
| Labour | 33.82% (+1.10%) | 263 (nc) |
| UKIP | 12.56 (+0.38%) | 3 (nc) |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.32% (-0.54%) | 23 (-3) |
| Green | 4.70% (-1.23%) | 1 (nc) |
| SNP | 4.49% (+0.14%) | 56 (nc) |
| PC | 0.65% (+0.25%) | 4 (+1) |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 (nc) | |
| Irish | 18 |
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.
I predict another1 992
The only workable government from these forecasts if the UK doesn’t want to be ruled by a rather extreme left Scottish rump is a grand coalition. The Torys need 290 to prevent this Labour /SNP rump and then we’d see them go with LD again given Clegg’s comment about not going with a loser.
There is no chance of a grand coalition – one or both of the big parties would split. See 1931 for precedent. And why do you call Labour and SNP a “rump”? That means a small leftover, but if they won a vote of confidence then both would have made significant gains.
The danger is really if the SNP do /not/use their votes – maintaining Labour in government but abstaining on English issues in a dance of death with the Tory opposition, so the government cannot pass legislation on England-only issues. The lesson from the Weimar constitution is that negative votes of confidence, impediments to fresh elections, and a party that wants to overthrow the state are a terrible combination. Unfortunately, that is what the Coalition have given us through the rushed Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
BTW I completely agree though that Clegg has shut the door to a Labour alliance. He has done this (a) because his principles are very similar to Cameron’s, socially and economically liberal, and (b) if he somehow survives the election (I haven’t heard him mention Sheffield once this year, so he doesn’t seem to care) then he understands that his head will be the price of progressive pact and he will do the decent thing if necessary.