10 Days to Go.
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
- A number of polls over the past 48 hours are indicating a clear movement to the Conservatives from Labour
- We are now seeing evidence of a shoring up of the SNP vote in Scotland, a reversal of our previous observations. This is the main driver of our reduction in the forecast of Labour seats. Our analysis indicates a great detail of volatility in seat gains for SNP once their Scottish percentage vote share moves above the mid 40s.
- We now predict three seats for UKIP – Clacton, South Thanet and Thurrock
Changes indicated from Monday’s forecast.
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 35.12% (+2.14%) | 279 (+4) |
| Labour | 32.72% (+0.74%) | 263 (-1) |
| UKIP | 12.18 (-1.69%) | 3 (nc) |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.86% (-0.09%) | 26 (-3) |
| Green | 5.93% (+0.40%) | 1 (nc) |
| SNP | 4.35% (+0.26%) | 56 (nc) |
| PC | 0.40% (-0.06%) | 3 (nc) |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 (nc) | |
| Irish | 18 |
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.
In terms of the forecast is this assuming the momentum towards the conservatives continues until polling day? Have more dramatic swings from UKIP to conservative been considered?
Good question. We try to track movements and momentum for all parties in different geographical areas. Each day we check whether the expected momentum is continuing and adjust as appropriate.
The current forecast assumes some degree of momentum towards the Conservatives and the SNP.