This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 34.72% | 281 |
| Labour | 31.76% | 282 |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.38% | 32 |
| UKIP | 15.03% | 1 |
| SNP | 3.36% | 31 |
| PC | 0.65% | 3 |
| Green | 4.24% | 1 |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 | |
| Irish | 18 |
Why are you SO different on the prediction o fthe SNP to other surveys ? Thank you
Thanks for your comment. The simple answer is that we expect some form of dampening of the SNP surge nearer to polling day. We also anticipate some level of tactical voting against the SNP surge – our forecast is indicating that the Conservative vote may decline in Scotland as Tory voters switch to alternatives to block the SNP.
It’s worth pointing out that some more constituency polling in Scotland may cause us to adjust our forecast over the next week or so.
Thank You.
One further question, if I may, please: have you analysed the impact of (the lack of) voter registration in the election and whether the shortfall of actual vs potential voters is split equally across the voting spectrum, or whether some parties are biased in favour/against ? Thank you
There is no information yet on final voter registration numbers, but the impact upon particular party support (possibly Labour, UKIP and the SNP) is something that needs to be considered.