This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
Forecast
- Our forecast sees midpoint values of an equal number of seats for Conservatives and Labour
- The SNP position continues to strengthen in Scotland (our probability of Labour being beaten in the seat count in Scotland is now 100%) and this dampens any expectation of a Labour plurality despite the Labour vote holding up.
- The support for UKIP continues to fall
- A greater amount of Welsh polling gives us a more robust view of the position in the Principality.
Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows.
| Party | Seats – Most Likely Outcome | Seats 50% CI | Seats 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 284 | 272 – 297 | 250 – 311 |
| Labour | 284 | 270 – 297 | 250 – 320 |
| Liberal Democrats | 28 | 25 – 31 | 17 – 39 |
| UKIP | 1 | 0 – 2 | 0 – 8 |
| SNP | 30 | 24 – 35 | 11 – 41 |
| PC | 3 | 1 – 5 | 0 – 8 |
| Green | 1 | 1 | 0 – 2 |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 | 0 – 2 | 0 – 8 |
| Irish | 18 | n/a | n/a |
Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for votes (mainland GB) and our centre point for seats is as follows.
| Party | Vote% – Mid Point | Vote% 50% CI | Vote% 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 34.6 | 33.7 – 35.7 | 31.9 – 37.4 |
| Labour | 32.8 | 31.9 – 33.7 | 30.1 – 35.4 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.0 | 9.3 – 10.6 | 8.1 – 12.0 |
| UKIP | 12.3 | 10.8 – 13.8 | 7.9 – 16.7 |
| Green | 5.2 | 4.2 – 6.0 | 2.6 – 7.6 |
Our probability of different outcomes is as follows.
| Conservative Majority | 0.1% |
| Conservative Minority | 49.4% |
| Exact Tie Labour and Conservative | 1.2% |
| Labour Minority | 48.4% |
| Labour Majority | 1.0% |
| UKIP more votes than Liberal Democrats | 87.0% |
| Greens more votes than Liberal Democrats | 0.3% |
| Greens more votes than UKIP | 1.4% |
| Green > LD > UKIP (votes) | 0.1% |
| LD > Green > UKIP (votes) | 1.3% |
| LD > UKIP > Green (votes) | 11.6% |
| UKIP > Green > LD (votes) | 0.2% |
| UKIP > LD > Green (votes) | 86.8% |
| UKIP get more votes than Labour | 0% |
What are the main points of your forecast?
We identify the following events / features.
- We continue to see a decline in the support for UKIP
- The chances of a working plurality for Labour are still damaged by the level of support for the SNP in Scotland
- The Liberal Democrats will struggle to poll significantly above 12%. This will have a dramatic effect on their attempts to retain seats. Furthermore, recent constituency level polling indicates that the expected Liberal Democrat incumbency effect is not as strong as has been thought.
- We are now incorporating constituency level analysis from a number of polls over the past six months
The key aspect of our forecast is uncertainty. We now show a variance of possibilities from a Labour majority to a Conservative majority. We still believe the most likely outcome is a Conservative minority government.
What are your “Conservative/Labour Majority/Minority/equity” probabilities now?
Good question Stephen – I’ve updated the table.
Wow that’s close. Interesting times!