This is a point-in-time forecast for the Rochester and Strood by-election.
The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for each candidate’s vote share.
| Party | Mid Point | 50% Intervals | 95% Intervals |
| Conservative | 31.9 | 30.3 – 33.4 | 27.4 – 36.3 |
| UKIP | 47.2 | 44.9 – 49.4 | 40.7 – 53.7 |
| Labour | 15.9 | 13.4 – 18.4 | 8.7 – 21.9 |
The probability of certain events is as follows.
| Event | Probability |
| UKIP > Con > Labour | 99.97% |
| UKIP > Labour > Con | 0.02% |
| Con > UKIP > Labour | 0.01% |
| LD Retain Deposit | 0.01% |
| Greens 4th, LD 5th | 98.12% |
| Greens 3rd, Labour 4th | 0.03% |
Since our last forecast we have firmed up our predictions for the Greens coming in 4th and the Liberal Democrats retaining their deposit. We are now registering a small likelihood of the Greens beating Labour into 3rd place.
For this forecast we ran 100,000 simulations of the Rochester and Strood by-election.