Forecast #GE2019 – 9th November 2019   Recently updated !


This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for seats and votes. We have stopped showing a range on the national vote for the moment.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – As small number of new polls since the last forecast have been added. We have also incorporated the results from a number of constituency polls.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory, but Labour support continuing to increase”.

Our forecast shows a strong Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a clear working majority in the Commons. Support for the Conservatives has however fallen since the last forecast. Some regional dramatic polling by YouGov underscores the observation that Labour are much further down from their 2017 position than the Conservatives are, but polling in the last few days indicates that their position is slowly improving.

In Scotland the SNP continue to show a strong lead looking to win around 50 seats. Labour are in a strong third place above the Liberal Democrats, with an increased margin. The Liberal Democrats continue to have a clear lead over Labour in terms of seats.

The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales and we now show a strong likelihood of them winning a clear majority of seats. This is our most volatile forecast with small sub-samples to work on, but across numerous opinion polls the Conservative lead over Labour is clear to see.

We see evidence that the Plaid Cymru position in Wales will improve with the new electoral pact with the Liberal Democrats and the Greens. Once we have the confirmed candidates list we will fully incorporate these changes into our forecast.

Despite the uncertainty as to which of its candidates will or won’t stand, the Brexit Party has improved its poll performance in the past week.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point during the summer.

There will be a new forecast at the end of the weekend.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives36.8%335 – 338+16 to +19
 Labour28.3%212 – 215-50 to -47
 SNP3.6% 50 – 53+15 to +18
Liberal Democrats15.0%22 – 28+10 to +16
Brexit Party10.0%0 – 20 to +2
Plaid Cymru0.5%2 – 4-2 to 0
Green2.5%0 – 2-1 to +1
Independent0 – 2
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP43.6%50 – 53+15 to +18
Conservatives21.0%1 – 4-12 to -9
Liberal Democrats 9.3%3 – 5-1 to +1
Labour17.0%0 – 2-7 to -5
Brexit Party 5.2%
Greens3.7%  

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Conservatives35.8%17 – 23+9 to +15
Labour 28.4%13 – 19 -15 to -9
Liberal Democrats 9.7%0 – 20 to +2
Plaid Cymru10.1% 2 – 4-3 to -1
Brexit Party13.5%  
Greens2.3%  

Most Likely Result – Conservative Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour39.0%42 – 44-7 to -5
Conservatives30.6%24 – 26+3 to +5
Liberal Democrats19.2%4 – 6+1 to +3
Brexit Party7.0%
Greens3.6%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP29.1%8 – 10-2 to 0
Sinn Fein25.0%5 – 7-2 to 0
Alliance24.1%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2
SDLP8.0%0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality



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