This is our latest forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.
The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day.
Key Features
Polls have shifted back to the Conservatives over the past week, with particularly strong showings in English sub-samples. The SNP are improving in Scotland at the expense of Labour with the Conservatives also declining slightly. In Wales Labour is recovering slightly but we still project the Conservatives to win the highest vote share and the largest number of seats.
There continues to be no evidence of a Lib Dem recovery, and our forecast now includes the possibility that they will actually lose a seat.
Our UK and regional forecasts now includes the centre point of the projected share of the vote.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 45.7% | 383 – 384 |
| Labour | 27.8% | 183 – 184 |
| SNP | 4.4% | 52 – 53 |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.1% | 7 – 9 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% | 2 – 3 |
| Green | 3.0% | 1 |
| UKIP | 6.4% | 0 |
| Speaker | 1 | |
| Northern Irish | 18 |
Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 122
This majority assumes 4 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.
We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| SNP | 46.6% | 52 – 53 |
| Conservatives | 26.8% | 4 – 6 |
| Labour | 16.9% | 1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.0% | 1 |
| Greens | 3.5% |
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 40.9% | 19 – 20 |
| Labour | 35.6% | 17 |
| Plaid Cymru | 10.5% | 2 – 3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 6.7% | 1 |
| UKIP | 4.4% | |
| Greens | 1.9% |
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| DUP | 26.7% | 9 |
| Sinn Fein | 25.7% | 5 |
| SDLP | 12.4% | 2 |
| UUP | 14.8 | 1 |
| Independent | 1 | |
| Greens | 1.9% |