This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
- Our latest forecast indicates an increase in support for UKIP. This is a statistically significant increase and reflects our confidence (using EWMA analysis which will be updated on the site shortly) that despite yesterday’s dip, UKIP has risen over the past week to a new level in the polls.
- The Conservatives have taken a narrow lead in vote share.
- There is little movement in seats predicted however and Labour have increased their lead marginally.
Changes indicated from yesterday’s forecast.
|Labour||32.70% (-1.97%)||284 (-1)|
|Conservatives||32.92% (-1.7%)||267 (-5)|
|UKIP||16.50% (+3.61%)||2 (nc)|
|Liberal Democrats||8.39% (+0.46%)||30 (+6)|
|Green||4.70% (-0.41%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||3.64% (-0.04%)||44 (nc)|
|PC||0.66% (+0.01%)||3 (nc)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|