This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Our latest forecast indicates a decline in support for UKIP reflected in a move to Labour and the Conservatives. There is little movement in seats predicted however and Labour have increased their lead marginally.
Changes indicated from yesterday’s forecast.
|Labour||34.67% (+1.23%)||285 (+4)|
|Conservatives||34.64% (+0.70%)||272 (+2)|
|UKIP||12.89% (-2.38%)||2 (nc)|
|Liberal Democrats||7.93% (-0.37%)||24 (-3)|
|Green||5.11 (+0.78%)||1 (nc)|
|SNP||3.68% (+0.03%)||44 (-3)|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1 (nc)|