- Our forecast sees midpoint values of an equal number of seats for Conservatives and Labour
- The SNP position continues to strengthen in Scotland (our probability of Labour being beaten in the seat count in Scotland is now 100%) and this dampens any expectation of a Labour plurality despite the Labour vote holding up.
- The support for UKIP continues to fall
- A greater amount of Welsh polling gives us a more robust view of the position in the Principality.
Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows.
|Party||Seats – Most Likely Outcome||Seats 50% CI||Seats 95% CI|
|Conservatives||284||272 – 297||250 – 311|
|Labour||284||270 – 297||250 – 320|
|Liberal Democrats||28||25 – 31||17 – 39|
|UKIP||1||0 – 2||0 – 8|
|SNP||30||24 – 35||11 – 41|
|PC||3||1 – 5||0 – 8|
|Green||1||1||0 – 2|
|Others inc. Speaker (GB)||1||0 – 2||0 – 8|
Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for votes (mainland GB) and our centre point for seats is as follows.
|Party||Vote% – Mid Point||Vote% 50% CI||Vote% 95% CI|
|Conservatives||34.6||33.7 – 35.7||31.9 – 37.4|
|Labour||32.8||31.9 – 33.7||30.1 – 35.4|
|Liberal Democrats||10.0||9.3 – 10.6||8.1 – 12.0|
|UKIP||12.3||10.8 – 13.8||7.9 – 16.7|
|Green||5.2||4.2 – 6.0||2.6 – 7.6|
Our probability of different outcomes is as follows.
|Exact Tie Labour and Conservative||1.2%|
|UKIP more votes than Liberal Democrats||87.0%|
|Greens more votes than Liberal Democrats||0.3%|
|Greens more votes than UKIP||1.4%|
|Green > LD > UKIP (votes)||0.1%|
|LD > Green > UKIP (votes)||1.3%|
|LD > UKIP > Green (votes)||11.6%|
|UKIP > Green > LD (votes)||0.2%|
|UKIP > LD > Green (votes)||86.8%|
|UKIP get more votes than Labour||0%|
What are the main points of your forecast?
We identify the following events / features.
- We continue to see a decline in the support for UKIP
- The chances of a working plurality for Labour are still damaged by the level of support for the SNP in Scotland
- The Liberal Democrats will struggle to poll significantly above 12%. This will have a dramatic effect on their attempts to retain seats. Furthermore, recent constituency level polling indicates that the expected Liberal Democrat incumbency effect is not as strong as has been thought.
- We are now incorporating constituency level analysis from a number of polls over the past six months
The key aspect of our forecast is uncertainty. We now show a variance of possibilities from a Labour majority to a Conservative majority. We still believe the most likely outcome is a Conservative minority government.