This is a point-in-time forecast for the Rochester and Strood by-election.
The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for each candidate’s vote share.
| Party | Mid Point | 50% Intervals | 95% Intervals |
| Conservative | 30.9 | 29.4 – 32.4 | 26.5 – 35.4 |
| UKIP | 44.8 | 42.6 – 47.1 | 38.3 – 51.4 |
| Labour | 18.8 | 16.3 – 21.2 | 11.5 – 25.9 |
The probability of certain events is as follows.
| Event | Probability |
| UKIP > Con > Labour | 99.72% |
| UKIP > Labour > Con | 0.25% |
| Con > UKIP > Labour | 0.04% |
| LD Retain Deposit | 0.1% |
| Greens 4th, LD 5th | 71.51% |
We anticipate more polling in Rochester and Strood over the next few weeks which will allow us to firm up our forecast.
For this forecast we ran 100,000 simulations of the Rochester and Strood by-election.