This is a Point in Time prediction. This means it is a forecast of what the Yes vote would be if the referendum happened today.
The Point in Time “centre point” of the prediction is 49.51%. This is the middle point of the distribution of likely outcomes based upon recent polling and other market data. This is a movement of 0.05% upwards from yesterday’s prediction
The Point in Time “Probability of Yes being greater than 50%” prediction is 37.15%. This means that when we run 10,000 simulations of the referendum based on current polling trends and the variances within them, Yes would win 3,715 times. This is a movement of over 1% down from yesterday’s prediction.
Their is a decrease in probability of a Yes win at the same time as a small increase in the centre point of the prediction. This effect is due to the narrowing of the variance of the range of possible outcomes caused by including the new TNS BMRB survey in our assessed data.
There are currently too few data items to produce an 18th of September Forecast.