US Election Nowcast – 17th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 344 (-6) 194 (+6) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.02% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.62% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 1.94% Probability Tie 0% Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) 188 – 8.3% likely Trump Median EC Vote (Centre […]


US Election Nowcast – 15th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 350 (+10) 188 (-10) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.15% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 0.99% Probability Tie 0% Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) 188 – 8.3% likely Trump Median EC Vote (Centre […]


US Election Nowcast – 10th October 2020 1

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 340 (-23) 198 (+23) Changes from last Nowcast Type of State EC Votes Safe Biden 200 Safe Biden – Swing State 75 Strong Biden 50 Weak Biden Tie Weak Trump 11 Strong Trump 73 Safe Trump – Swing State 45 Safe Trump 84 Based on Criteria […]


US Election Forecast – 2nd October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 363 175 Biden continues to show strong performance in most swing states, producing a commanding lead in the Electoral College. Our State by State analysis is as follows. State Prob Biden Win Commentary Alabama 9.4% Polling continues to be light with no new data since the […]


2019 – How did we do? 2

We compared our final forecast with those made by other forecasting projects. We have taken the data from Elections Etc who have a list of all the forecasts they used in their project. We have only included forecasts that tried to estimate the seats for at least six parties (Con, […]


Forecast #GE2019 – 12th December 2019

This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK. This forecast was updated at 1330 GMT. Important – This is an on the day NOWCAST for this election. It is important to note that our on the day forecast does not include any information […]


Forecast #GE2019 – 11th December 2019

This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK. Important – This is a FORWARDCAST for this election, predicting the result of the election on the 12th, rather than the result of an election on the day of the forecast. What does your forecast […]


Forecast #GE2019 – 10th December 2019

This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK. Important – This is a FORWARDCAST for this election, predicting the result of the election on the 12th, rather than the result of an election on the day of the forecast. What does your forecast […]


Forecast #GE2019 – 9th December 2019 9

This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK. Important – This is a FORWARDCAST for this election, predicting the result of the election on the 12th, rather than the result of an election on the day of the forecast. What does your forecast […]


Forecast #GE2019 – 8th December 2019 3

This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK. Important – This is a FORWARDCAST for this election, predicting the result of the election on the 12th, rather than the result of an election on the day of the forecast. What does your forecast […]