Current Forecast
| Harris | Trump |
|---|---|
| 261 | 277 |
This is our latest Forecast for the 2024 US General Election. Forecast is calculated on a “Nowcast” basis meaning that it is the result if an election were held today.
| Probability Trump Victory | 63.5% |
| Probability Harris Victory | 35.8% |
| Probability Tie | 0.7% |
| Probability Trump 260+ EC Votes | 82.3% |
| Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes | 92.7% |
| Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes | 98.3% |
| 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes | 262 – 287 |
| Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) | 277 – 6.0% likely |
| Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution) | 277 – 6.0% likely |
State Forecasts – Prob Trump Winning
| State | Probability Trump Wins | Change Since Last Forecast |
| Arizona | 93.0% | Slight Improvement for Trump |
| Georgia | 61.8% | Slight Improvement for Harris |
| Michigan | 51.4% | Slight Improvement for Trump |
| Nevada | 64.7% | Improvement for Trump |
| North Carolina | 81.1% | Improvement for Harris |
| Pennsylvania | 42.4% | Strong Improvement for Trump |
| Wisconsin | 37.1% | No Change |
Commentary
After yesterday’s dramatic movements in Pennsylvania, new polls (Siena, Activote, Morning Consult) are better for Trump, but we still have him behind Harris in the State. Overnight a new Selzer poll for Iowa has stirred commentary, but another poll (Emerson) gave Trump a continued strong position there. We have modified our forecast for Iowa with Trump still in front, but with Harris now having a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
Overall, the polls in the past 24 hours have indicated Trump is still holding up where he needs to do well. Our Median forecast is up 6 EC votes for him but Harris is still showing as having a 35% chance of winning the White House.
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
We run 10,000 simulations of the election. Our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in each simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes across all the simulations in aggregate.
Some prediction sites like FiveThirtyEight or Nate Silver have a different probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! We all have slightly different modelling philosophies which produce different outcomes.
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilities above, but leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.