This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.
As we approach Polling Day, we make some adjustments to our forecast to try and incorporate the final trend in support for each party.
Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.
What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – We have adjusted the trend section of our model.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Commentary
Some significant shifts today after a large volume of polling. Highlights include:
- Evidence that the Conservative vote is starting to move up, mainly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and Labour (indicative of wavering Tories “coming home”)
- Conservatives now back into three figures for seats
- Scotland race tightening with the gap between Labour and the SNP now only 1.8%
- The Alliance neck and neck with DUP in Northern Ireland on vote share
Of prime significance is that we no longer have a single seat with Reform as the most likely to win. In Clacton we now have the probabilities of winning as Watling, 46.6% and Farage, 44.1%.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 38.9% (+6.8%) | 429 – 451 | +229 to +251 |
| Conservatives | 20.0% (-23.7%) | 103 – 109 | -268 to -262 |
| Reform | 17.4% (+15.4%) | 0 – 19 | nc to +19 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.6% (-1.0%) | 46 – 51 | +37 to +42 |
| Green | 6.6% (+3.9%) | 0 – 2 | -1 to +1 |
| SNP | 2.9% (-0.9%) | 20 – 23 | -28 to -25 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.6% (+0.2%) | 3 – 5 | +1 to +3 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc | |
| Independents | 0 – 1 | nc to +1 | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Landslide
England
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 40.5% (+6.6%) | 379 – 400 | +198 to +219 |
| Conservatives | 21.2% (-26.1%) | 95 – 100 | -258 to -253 |
| Reform | 19.0% (+16.9%) | 0 – 19 | nc to +19 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.3% (-1.1%) | 42 – 46 | +35 to +39 |
| Green | 7.4% (+4.3%) | 0 – 2 | -1 to +1 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc | |
| Independent | 0 – 1 | nc to +1 |
Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 35.7% (+17.2%) | 27 – 29 | +26 to +28 |
| SNP | 33.9% (-11.2%) | 20 – 23 | -28 to -25 |
| Conservatives | 12.1% (-13.0%) | 2 – 4 | -4 to -2 |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.1% (-0.5%) | 3 – 6 | +1 to +4 |
| Reform | 7.7% (+7.2%) | 0 | nc |
| Green | 1.6% (+0.6%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 36.4% (-4.6%) | 21 – 24 | +3 to +6 |
| Conservatives | 22.9% (-13.1%) | 4 – 7 | -8 to -5 |
| Reform | 16.7% (+11.2%) | 0 | nc |
| Plaid Cymru | 13.5% (+3.6%) | 3 – 5 | +1 to +3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.7% (-0.3%) | 0 | nc |
| Green | 4.7% (+3.7%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | 23.5% (+0.7%) | 6 – 8 | -1 to +1 |
| DUP | 20.1% (-10.4%) | 4 – 7 | -4 to -1 |
| Alliance | 20.1% (+3.4%) | 1 – 4 | nc to +3 |
| UUP | 14.6% (+2.9%) | 0 – 2 | nc to +2 |
| SDLP | 14.1% (-0.8%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
| TUV | 5.2% (new) | 0 | new |
Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality