This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.
Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.
What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – There has been no methodology change since yesterday.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Commentary
Reform appear to have plateaued just below 17% of the vote, with the Conservatives rising yet again as Labour dips below 41% for the first time in a week (and the last dip below 41% was due to the rise of Reform). As we wrote two a few days ago, just a few percentage points change from this low Conservative position will bring them healthily above 100 seats and within striking distance of their 1997 result. Whilst Labour is still on course for a decisive win, there is a lot to play for over the next five days.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 40.7% (+8.6%) | 458 – 486 | +258 to +486 |
| Conservatives | 19.4% (-24.3%) | 70 – 88 | -301 to -283 |
| Reform | 16.8% (+14.8%) | 1 – 17 | +1 to +17 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.0% (-0.6%) | 47 – 51 | +38 to +42 |
| Green | 6.2% (+3.5%) | 0 – 2 | -1 to +1 |
| SNP | 2.7% (-1.2%) | 16 – 19 | -32 to -29 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.6% (+0.1%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Landslide
England
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 42.5% (+8.6%) | 403 – 434 | +222 to +253 |
| Conservatives | 20.4% (-26.8%) | 60 – 79 | -293 to -274 |
| Reform | 18.4% (+16.4%) | 1 – 17 | +1 to +17 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.7% (-0.7%) | 42 – 46 | +35 to +39 |
| Green | 6.9% (+3.8%) | 0 – 2 | -1 to +1 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 36.0% (+17.5%) | 27 – 32 | +26 to +31 |
| SNP | 31.7% (-13.3%) | 16 – 19 | -32 to -29 |
| Conservatives | 13.6% (-11.5%) | 4 – 7 | nc to +1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.9% (-0.7%) | 3 – 6 | +1 to +4 |
| Reform | 6.9% (+6.4%) | 0 | nc |
| Green | 2.8% (+1.8%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 38.9% (-2.0%) | 23 – 25 | +5 to +7 |
| Conservatives | 21.6% (-14.5%) | 3 – 6 | -9 to -6 |
| Reform | 15.6% (+10.2%) | 0 | nc |
| Plaid Cymru | 11.8% (+1.9%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.4% (+1.4%) | 0 | nc |
| Green | 4.6% (+3.5%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | 23.2% (+0.5%) | 6 – 8 | -1 to +1 |
| DUP | 21.3% (-9.2%) | 5 – 7 | -3 to -1 |
| Alliance | 17.6% (+0.8%) | 1 – 3 | nc to +2 |
| UUP | 14.7% (+3.0%) | 0 – 2 | nc to +2 |
| SDLP | 13.9% (-1.0%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
| TUV | 8.2% (new) | 0 | new |
Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality