This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.
Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.
What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – There has been no methodology change since yesterday.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Commentary
There is now a clear separation again between the Conservatives and Reform, but it appears that as Reform’s support diminishes it is equally likely to got to Labour as it is to the Tories. The next set of polls will be interesting to try and unpack where Reform voters are moving in the last week of campaigning.
There is now the distinct possibility of the Conservatives actually picking up SNP seats if the SNP support stays where it is.
Labour are still on course for an overwhelming win, but based on a lower share of the vote than a few weeks ago. This makes them more vulnerable to a small swing to the Conservatives as seats that wouldn’t have been Tory on a national 20% share of the vote a month ago would now stay Blue. Seats that a week ago would be safely Labour (for eg, Faversham in Kent) are now once again neck and neck. At the moment each 1% swing back to the Tories is worth about 10 seats, so a late surge for the Conservatives could see them nearing their 1997 result, especially if Reform voters move back to them.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 41.4% (+9.3%) | 471 – 502 | +271 to +302 |
| Conservatives | 18.9% (-24.7%) | 50 – 77 | -321 to -294 |
| Reform | 16.5% (+14.5%) | 1 – 14 | +1 to +14 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.9% (-0.6%) | 47 – 55 | +38 to +46 |
| Green | 6.4% (+3.7%) | 0 – 2 | -1 to +1 |
| SNP | 2.7% (-1.2%) | 16 – 19 | -32 to -29 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.6% (+0.1%) | 2 – 4 | +nc to +2 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Landslide
England
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 43.3% (+9.4%) | 416 – 450 | +235 to +269 |
| Conservatives | 19.9% (-27.4%) | 41 – 68 | -312 to -285 |
| Reform | 18.0% (+15.9%) | 1 – 14 | +1 to +14 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.7% (-0.7%) | 43 – 49 | +36 to +42 |
| Green | 7.1% (+4.0%) | 0 – 2 | -1 to +1 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 35.8% (+17.3%) | 27 – 32 | +26 to +31 |
| SNP | 31.4% (-13.6%) | 16 – 19 | -32 to -29 |
| Conservatives | 14.6% (-10.5%) | 4 – 7 | nc to +1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.2% (-1.3%) | 3 – 6 | +1 to +4 |
| Reform | 7.3% (+6.8%) | 0 | nc |
| Green | 2.6% (+1.6%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 39.6% (-1.3%) | 23 – 25 | +5 to +7 |
| Conservatives | 19.6% (-16.5%) | 2 – 5 | -10 to -7 |
| Reform | 16.7% (+11.3%) | 0 | nc |
| Plaid Cymru | 11.6% (+1.6%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.5% (+1.5%) | 0 – 2 | nc to +2 |
| Green | 5.0% (+3.9%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | 25.5% (+2.7%) | 6 – 8 | -1 to +1 |
| DUP | 21.5% (-9.1%) | 5 – 7 | -3 to -1 |
| Alliance | 17.2% (+0.5%) | 1 – 3 | nc to +2 |
| SDLP | 12.3% (-2.6%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
| UUP | 12.4% (+0.7%) | 0 – 2 | nc to +2 |
| TUV | 10.1% (new) | 0 | new |
Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality