Forecast #GE2024 – 23rd June 2024


This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – We have included some data from constituency opinion polls.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Commentary

For the first time this election we show the Conservatives in third place on votes, across the UK as a whole as well as in England. This may change back over the next few days if public sentiment turns against Nigel Farage in the light of his Ukraine remarks.

In Scotland the SNP are making a small comeback after some recent poor polling figures.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a wipeout”.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour41.1% (+9.0%)470 – 509+270 to +309
Conservatives18.1% (-25.5%)51 – 71-320 to -300
Reform18.5% (+16.5%)2 – 30+2 to +30
Liberal Democrats10.2% (-1.4%)43 – 51+34 to +42
Green6.4% (+3.7%)0 – 2-1 to +1
SNP2.6% (-1.3%)12 – 14-36 to -34
Plaid Cymru0.6% (+0.1%)2 – 5+1 to +3
Speaker 1 nc
Northern Ireland 18 nc

Most likely result – Labour Landslide

England

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour42.6% (+8.7%)409 – 449+228 to +268
Conservatives19.1% (-28.1%)42 – 63-311 to -290
Reform20.2% (+18.2%)2 – 30+2 to +30
Liberal Democrats11.0% (-1.5%)39 – 48+32 to +41
Green6.9% (+3.9%)0 – 2-1 to +1
Speaker 1 nc

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour38.1% (+19.6%)34 – 38+33 to +37
SNP29.7% (-15.3%)12 – 14-36 to -34
Conservatives12.8% (-12.3%)3 – 7-3 to +1
Liberal Democrats 7.4% (-2.1%)2 – 4nc to +2
Reform8.3% (+7.9%)0nc
Green3.6% (+2.6%)0nc

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Labour41.1% (+0.1%)24 – 26+6 to +8
Conservatives19.5% (-16.6%)2 – 4-10 to -8
Reform16.3% (+10.9%)0nc
Plaid Cymru11.8% (+1.9%)2 – 5nc to +3
Liberal Democrats 6.3% (+0.3%)0 – 1nc to +1
Green4.9% (+3.8%)0nc

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Sinn Fein25.5% (+2.7%)6 – 8-1 to +1
DUP21.6% (-8.9%)5 – 7-3 to -1
Alliance17.2% (+0.5%)1 – 3nc to +2
SDLP12.3% (-2.5%)1 – 3-1 to +1
UUP12.4% (+0.7%)0 – 2nc to +2
TUV10.0% (new)0new

Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality

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