Forecast #GE2024 – 18th June 2024

This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made slight adjustments to our tactical voting assumptions.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.


This forecast presents our lowest ever Conservative figure for votes and seats. We now have Rishi Sunak down to a 41.3% chance of holding onto his seat. The Tory leader was in Torridge and Tavistock today, and our forecast gives Geoffrey Cox only a 36.8% chance of winning that seat.

We have seen a distinct decline in SNP support over the past few week. Across the whole of Great Britain, Reform and the Liberal Democrats appear to have plateaued.

As we have stated before, the current multi-dimensional swings are of an order not seen in polling history or post-war elections, and there is great deal of uncertainty as to what the actual outcome in individual seats will be.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a wipeout”.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour41.8% (+9.7%)476 – 507+276 to +307
Conservatives19.2% (-24.5%)57 – 80-314 to -291
Reform16.8% (+14.8%)1 – 16+1 to +16
Liberal Democrats10.8% (-0.7%)45 – 52+36 to +43
Green5.7% (+3.0%)0 – 1-1 to nc
SNP2.5% (-1.4%)8 – 11-40 to -37
Plaid Cymru0.6% (+0.2%)2 – 5nc to +3
Speaker 1 nc
Northern Ireland 18 nc

Most likely result – Labour Landslide


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour43.2% (+9.3%)411 – 444+230 to +263
Conservatives20.3% (-27.0%)48 – 72-305 to -281
Reform18.5% (+16.5%)1 – 16+1 to +16
Liberal Democrats11.8% (-0.7%)42 – 48+35 to +41
Green6.2% (+3.1%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Speaker 1 nc

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour40.1% (+21.5%)37 – 41+36 to +40
SNP28.4% (-16.7%)8 – 11-40 to -37
Conservatives13.0% (-12.2%)3 – 7-3 to +1
Liberal Democrats 8.2% (-1.3%)2 – 5nc to +3
Reform6.2% (+5.7%)0nc
Green4.2% (+3.2%)0nc


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Labour42.5% (+1.5%)24 – 26+6 to +8
Conservatives20.4% (-15.7%)2 – 5-10 to -7
Plaid Cymru13.1% (+3.2%)2 – 5nc to +3
Reform15.3% (+9.8%)0nc
Liberal Democrats 5.2% (-0.8%)0nc
Green3.5% (+2.5%)0nc

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Sinn Fein25.7% (+3.0%)6 – 8-1 to +1
DUP21.3% (-9.3%)5 – 7-3 to -1
Alliance17.2% (+0.4%)1 – 3nc to +2
SDLP12.6% (-2.2%)1 – 3-1 to +1
UUP12.1% (+0.5%)0 – 2nc to +2
TUV9.1% (new)0new

Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality

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