This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.
Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.
What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made slight adjustments to our tactical voting assumptions.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Commentary
Although our forecast shows modest changes over the last few days, we have now found ourselves in territory where there is great uncertainty in exactly how the Conservatives will fare. Our forecast today has the lowest mid-point of Conservative seats since the calling of the election, with the highest Liberal Democrat and Reform predictions all month. It should also be noted that support for Labour is slowly going down as well.
In Scotland we are seeing strong evidence of the SNP rising again in public support. We have moved our forecast from Labour majority to Labour plurality.
In Wales we now see a possibility of the Lib Dems winning a seat. We have them as 45% likely to take Brecon from the Conservatives, but they would need a substantial increase in support to challenge anywhere else.
We are now overall into a region of statistical uncertainty where all forecasts should be taken with a pinch of salt. With the level of multi-dimensional swings now being predicted it is very hard to make a reasonable estimate as to what seats will go where.
Key Features
The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a landslide”.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 42.0% (+10.0%) | 461 – 487 | +261 to +287 |
| Conservatives | 20.6% (-23.1%) | 74 – 97 | -297 to -274 |
| Reform | 15.2% (+13.2%) | 1 – 7 | +1 to +7 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.1% (-1.4%) | 38 – 43 | +29 to +34 |
| Green | 5.9% (+3.2%) | 0 – 1 | -1 to nc |
| SNP | 3.0% (-0.9%) | 20 – 24 | -28 to -24 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.6% (+0.2%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Landslide
England
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 44.0% (+10.1%) | 409 – 434 | +228 to +253 |
| Conservatives | 21.9% (-25.4%) | 85 – 101 | -268 to -246 |
| Reform | 16.6% (+14.6%) | 1 – 7 | +1 to +7 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.9% (-1.5%) | 35 – 39 | +28 to +32 |
| Green | 6.5% (+3.4%) | 0 – 1 | -1 to 0 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 35.0% (+16.5%) | 26 – 29 | +25 to +28 |
| SNP | 34.4% (-10.6%) | 20 – 24 | -28 to -24 |
| Conservatives | 13.6% (-11.5%) | 3 – 5 | -3 to -1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.7% (-1.9%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Reform | 6.6% (+6.1%) | 0 | nc |
| Greens | 2.6% (+1.6%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 42.2% (+1.2%) | 24 – 26 | +6 to +8 |
| Conservatives | 20.7% (-15.4%) | 2 – 4 | -10 to -8 |
| Reform | 13.2% (+7.7%) | 0 | nc |
| Plaid Cymru | 13.2% (+3.2%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 6.1% (+0.2%) | 0 – 1 | nc to +1 |
| Greens | 4.6% (+3.6%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | 28.4% (+5.6%) | 6 – 8 | nc to +1 |
| DUP | 20.9% (-9.6%) | 5 – 8 | -2 to +2 |
| Alliance | 15.6% (-1.2%) | 0 – 3 | -1 to +2 |
| UUP | 12.3% (+0.7%) | 0 – 2 | nc to +2 |
| TUV | 12.1% (new) | 0 | new |
| SDLP | 10.5% (-4.3%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality