Forecast #GE2024 – 13th March 2024

This is our latest forecast of 2024 for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place in November 2024. An earlier or later election would affect our forecast.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made no methodological changes since our last forecast.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a working majority”

Our forecast shows Labour as the largest party in the Commons.

Please note that since this forecast is for an election in the late autumn, it reflects the polls today and what we think the change in support will be between now and then. It should not be viewed as a definitive prediction of the result later this year.

Compared to our forecast last month, our overall expectation is slightly more favourable for Labour. At present we expect Labour to be the largest party across the whole of the UK, helped by winning back seats in Wales and Scotland from the Conservatives and the SNP respectively. We believe that Labour are most likely to win enough seats to rule without the need for any support from any other party.

In London the Conservatives are bucking the national trend and could even pick up seats. With Reform set to get over 7% of the vote in the Capital, we calculate that an accommodation between the Conservatives and Reform here could see another 6 seats lost by Labour beyond the figures below.

In Scotland the SNP continue to fall back and now look to be handing over the mantle of largest party to Labour. The Conservatives now look to share with Labour in benefiting from this change. Even though the Tories’ vote share north of the border will be less than in 2019, they should pick up a seat or two from the SNP. It should be noted that Labour’s UK majority is contingent on the SNP decline maintaining its current state until polling day. Without the seat gains north of the border, we do not believe Labour could command a Westminster majority.

In Wales Labour resume their dominant position after Conservative gains in 2019. We are expecting a loss of most, if not all of the 2019 gains here for the Conservatives. There is little sign of the Liberal Democrats winning any seats here, with their former constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire (last won in 2010 and then again in a by-election in 2019) being only a 1 in 3 chance of victory (and probably falling short by 2000 votes).

There is minimal polling in Northern Ireland, but it does indicate large increases in Sinn Fein support (echoing voting patterns south of the border). We believe there is a significant possibility that Sinn Fein will be the largest party in a Westminster vote, both in ballots cast and seats won. This forecast includes slight updates on last month’s, reflecting the time since a poll was conducted in the Province.

We note a large increase in the vote share for Reform. Recent polling indicates that those who currently express a preference for Reform are overwhelmingly likely to vote for the Conservatives if having to make another preference. We are tracking a number of constituencies where we believe another 5% or so in the national polls might put them within reach of having MPs. These seats include Barnsley East, Barnsley Central, Hartlepool, Doncaster North, Normanton and Ashfield.

Finally, our forecast includes an element of expectation of reversion to mean (in that we believe the current Conservative position in the polls represents a low point they will come back from). As the next few months evolve, we will look for evidence of that reversion to mean, and adjust our expectations accordingly if it is not observed in practice.

UK Forecast

Most likely result – Labour Overall Majority

England

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats

Scotland

Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats

Wales

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

London

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Most Likely Result – Too close to call between DUP Plurality and Sinn Fein Plurality