This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.
The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.
What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – New polling from most firms over the weekend
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Key Features
The overall summary of our forecast is “Conservative Victory with lead stabilising”.
Our forecast shows a Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a working majority in the Commons. In contrast to previous nowcasts however we no longer believe this majority would be in three figures. Labour is slowly closing the gap on the Conservatives but the mid point for our seat range for the Tories has stabilised.
After a week of falling vote shares, the Conservatives have risen again in the polls over the weekend. The Labour vote also continues to rise. By contrast, the Liberal Democrat vote share continues to fall and our national vote share for them of 12.6% is the lowest all campaign.
In England we continue to see a strong performance for the Conservatives, especially in key target seats. Liberal Democrat support after appearing to rise again is now falling. Labour support appears to be recovering slowly but firmly, yet still indicating a poor performance compared to 2017.
Although they now have a clear lead over the Brexit Party, we have downgraded the seat range for the Greens to 0-1. We do not expect them to win any other seats apart from Brighton Pavilion, but that seems fairly safe.
The Brexit Party continues to show extremely poor polling across the entire country. Now we have full confirmation of where the Brexit Party will be standing, we can adjust our final vote percentage on that basis. The overwhelming majority of Leave sentiment is now expressing a vote preference for the Conservatives and at this point we have high confidence that the Brexit Party will not be a significant force on December the 12th.
In Scotland we continue to see evidence that Remain and Leave support is coalescing around the SNP and the Conservatives repectively. Support for the SNP does appear to be falling back and we have the mid point of their sit range at the lowest point all campaign. There is some evidence that Labour is beginning to recover and may yet save up to four of their current seats.
Survey data in Wales continues to be volatile with Labour retaking the lead. We now anticipate the Conservatives to make just modest gains. We now show Lib Dem support back at a level where gaining a seat may be possible.
In London we now see Labour opening up a clear lead over the Conservatives. The Conservatives are still set to make modest gains, but will not end up with more than 30 seats as previous Nowcasts indicated. As before, the Liberal Democrats are performing poorly outside their target seats and their seat range has fallen since yesterday.
Our Northern Ireland forecast is based the latest poll from Lucid Talk.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 43.8% | 358 – 367 | +43 to +52 |
| Labour | 32.8% | 205 – 208 | -57 to -54 |
| SNP | 3.3% | 40 – 43 | +5 to +8 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12.6% | 13 – 19 | +1 to +7 |
| Brexit Party | 1.9% | 0 | |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.4% | 2 – 4 | -2 to 0 |
| Green | 2.3% | 0 – 1 | -1 to 0 |
| Independent | 0 – 1 | ||
| Speaker | 1 | – | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 |
Most likely result – Conservative Majority
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 38.7% | 40 – 43 | +5 to +8 |
| Conservatives | 26.8% | 10 – 12 | -3 to -1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 14.6% | 3 – 6 | -1 to +2 |
| Labour | 19.0% | 0 – 4 | -7 to -3 |
| Greens | 0.7% | ||
| Brexit Party | 0.2% |
Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 39.9% | 23 – 26 | -5 to -2 |
| Conservatives | 33.8% | 10 – 13 | +2 to +5 |
| Plaid Cymru | 8.7% | 2 – 4 | -2 to 0 |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.8% | 0 – 2 | 0 to +2 |
| Brexit Party | 8.2% | ||
| Greens | 0.5% |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
London
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 45.6% | 45 – 48 | -1 to +2 |
| Conservatives | 33.5% | 21- 24 | 0 to +3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 17.2% | 3 – 5 | 0 to +2 |
| Greens | 1.7% | ||
| Brexit Party | 1.8% |
We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 28.4% | 6 – 9 | -4 to -1 |
| Sinn Fein | 23.6% | 3 – 6 | -4 to -1 |
| Alliance | 23.2% | 2 – 4 | +2 to +4 |
| SDLP | 14.6% | 1 – 3 | +1 to +3 |
| UUP | 9.1% | 0 – 2 | 0 to +2 |
Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality
Keep these forecasts coming!
How accurate were you last time btw? 🙂
Much as I hate to blow my own trumpet…
https://forecastuk.org.uk/2019/11/13/how-did-we-do-last-time/