Forecast #GE2019 – 24th November 2019


This is our latest forecast for the December 12th 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We show the mid point of our forecast for votes. We also show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New poll data over the weekend is available.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Strong Conservative Victory”.

Our forecast shows a strong Conservative lead over Labour, leading to a strong working majority in the Commons. There is a significant possibility that the majority will be in three figures. There is now good evidence that support for Labour has peaked and is beginning to fall back.

In England we continue to see a very strong performance for the Conservatives, especially in key target seats. Liberal Democrat support appears to have begun rising again and Labour support is falling in response. We see no evidence that this pattern will not continue over the next few days. The only thing holding up the Labour seat range is their improvement in Wales over the past few days.

The Brexit Party is now showing extremely poor polling across the entire country. Now we have full confirmation of where the Brexit Party will be standing, we can adjust our final vote percentage on that basis. The overwhelming majority of Leave sentiment is now expressing a vote preference for the Conservatives and at this point we have high confidence that the Brexit Party will not be a significant force on December the 12th.

After a week of stable polls, we now see evidence that Green Party support is rising.

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In Scotland we continue to see evidence that Remain and Leave support is coalescing around the SNP and the Conservatives repectively. Labour are falling back again and we believe there is a distinct chance they will move into a fourth place in terms of both seats and votes within the next week. The SNP continue to recover from their slump earlier in the week and now look to make gains, but at the moment we do not believe they will not achieve a similar result to 2015.

Survey data in Wales continues to be volatile with Labour retaking the lead. We await eagerly the next YouGov large survey of Wales which has been out of kilter with all the subsamples of the other polling firms (including YouGov’s own Welsh / Midlands subsamples).

In London we now see evidence that the slump in support for Labour elsewhere in the country is starting to be felt in the capital as well. Liberal Democrat performance outside their target seats continues to be weak. The gap between Labour and Conservatives is now only 1.3%.

[visualizer id=”752″] 

Our Northern Ireland forecast is updated based on a new poll from Lucid Talk.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives44.7%377 – 395+60 to +78
 Labour28.7%176 – 178-86 to -84
 SNP3.7% 43- 46+8 to +11
Liberal Democrats15.2%13 – 25+1 to +13
Brexit Party1.7%0
Plaid Cymru0.4%2 – 5-2 to +1
Green2.6%0 – 2-1 to +1
Independent0 – 2
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP43.1%43 – 46+8 to +11
Conservatives27.4%8 – 10-5 to -3
Liberal Democrats 13.8%3 – 6-1 to +2
Labour14.6%0 – 2-7 to -5
Greens0.7%
Brexit Party 0.3%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour38.9%20 – 23-8 to -5
Conservatives36.6%13 – 16+5 to +8
Plaid Cymru9.1%2 – 5-2 to +1
Liberal Democrats 8.2%0 – 20 to +2
Brexit Party6.4%  
Greens0.8%  

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour36.3%36- 39-10 to -7
Conservatives35.0%26 – 32+5 to +11
Liberal Democrats23.9%5 – 8+2 to +5
Greens3.0%
Brexit Party1.8%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP28.4%6 – 9-4 to -1
Sinn Fein23.6%3 – 6-4 to -1
Alliance23.2%2 – 4+2 to +4
SDLP14.6%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality



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