Forecast #GE2019 – 23rd September 2019

This is our latest forecast for a potential November 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a confidence interval on the seats and vote shares for the major parties.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls from ComRes poll and Opinium have been included.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Narrow Conservative Majority”.

Our updated forecast continues to see support rise for the Conservatives and the swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats from Remain voters impacts upon the former’s seats allowing the Conservatives to pick up an extra ten or more seats from our last forecast.

With the Labour vote continuing to slip away, we expect major losses if an election was held next month. Outside of London where Labour losses should be kept to a minimum, we expect over 50 seats to be lost to various parties, including almost 40 to the Conservatives. This correlates with recent polling showing that Jeremy Corbyn is unpopular in almost all segments of the population.

This is our first forecast that has the Liberal Democrats polling more votes across the country than Labour. A slight movement to the Conservatives means that the Liberal Democrat surge is not quite as dramatic as our last forecast. There continues to be the possibility as Remain Labour voters transfer to the Liberal Democrats, that seats where in 2017 the Liberal Democrats slipped into third place they may even win outright in 2019. Key likely targets here are Southport (High chance of Liberal Democrat win), Portsmouth South (78.4% chance of Liberal Democrat win) and Burnley (55.2% chance of Liberal Democrat win).

In Scotland we expect the SNP to regain almost all their losses in 2017 to Labour and the Conservatives.

The Conservatives continue to evidence strong support in Wales. We do continue to struggle with robust Welsh data however and our forecast should be understood to have a large degree of uncertainty in it.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point last month.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives32.0% (28.9% – 35.1%)325 – 330+8 to +13
 Labour21.0% (19.7% – 23.3%)205 – 213-57 to -49
 SNP3.6% 46 – 48+11 to +13
Liberal Democrats21.6% (18.7% – 24.5%)35 – 46+23 to +34
Brexit Party12.9% (11.6% – 14.2%)1 – 3+1 to +3
Plaid Cymru0.5%3 – 5-1 to +1
Green5.2% (4.2% – 6.2%)0 -2-1 to +1
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Narrow Conservative Victory


Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
SNP43.9%46 – 48+11 to +13
Conservatives25.2%6 – 8-7 to -5
Liberal Democrats 11.0%3 – 5 -1 to +1
Labour11.1%0 – 2-7 to -5
Brexit Party 5.5%

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour 22.2% 14 – 18-14 to -10
Conservatives 26.8% 16 – 17+8 to +9
Liberal Democrats 22.2% 2 – 4+2 to +4
Plaid Cymru9.7% 3 – 5-1 to +1
Brexit Party17.5%   

Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats


Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
Labour36.1%44 – 45-2 to -1
Conservatives25.6%22 – 24+1 to +3
Liberal Democrats23.6%5 – 6+2 to +3
Brexit Party7.0%

We expect three Change UK / TIG seats in London to be lost

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2017
DUP29.1%8 – 10-2 to 0
Sinn Fein25.0%5 – 7-2 to 0
Alliance24.1%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality

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