This is our latest forecast for the 23rd of May 2019 European Parliament Election in Great Britain. This is an on the day forecast but is based entirely on opinion poll data gathered before the opening of polling stations.
This is a forecast representing the result we expect today.
This forecast was updated c. 1345 BST to include the last poll from MORI.
What does your forecast show? – We show the expected range of percentage vote for each party, together with the central forecast. The range is a 50% confidence interval. We also show the expected number of seats across the whole of Great Britain.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
Do you do a regional forecast for Wales and Scotland? – For a General Election we would conduct a forecast at regional and sub-regional levels. At present the level of polling data for the UK does not support regional forecasts.
Will you update this forecast? We have no plans to update this forecast unless new polling data emerges during the day.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Key Features
Our updated forecast shows the Brexit Party support continuing to remain in the mid to high 30s with an almost certain likelihood of coming in first place on the vote count. Further down, the two main traditional parties have seen a lift in their support with Labour now neck and neck with the Liberal Democrats for second place. Although we project the most likely outcome is for Labour to score 1% less than the Liberal Democrats, they may come away with more seats.
As the chart below shows however, the uncertainty in the Labour vote is much higher than the Liberal Democrats, and Labour could still potentially come in third or even fourth.
Both the Conservatives and the Greens are at levels of support where just an extra percentage point either way can have a dramatic effect on the number of seats they achieve (due to the d’Hondt system of PR utilised for the election). This means that although we may be quite accurate on their final vote tally, the seat forecasts for both parties should be taken with a note of caution.
Regional sub-samples indicate that support for the SNP and Plaid Cymru is firming up and they should achieve at least the same outcome in seats as 2014.
There is no forecast for Northern Ireland due to limited data. We anticipate a similar result to 2014 (1 seat each for Sinn Fein, DUP and UUP).
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast Seats | Change on 2014 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brexit Party | 36.3% (33.6% – 39.0%) | 36 | +36 | |||
| Liberal Democrats | 17.5% (15.2% – 19.8%) | 11 | +10 | |||
| Labour | 16.5% (12.7% – 20.3%) | 12 | -8 | |||
| Conservative | 10.8% (8.1% – 13.5%) | 5 | -14 | |||
| Green | 8.7% (7.5% – 10.9%) | 3 | – | |||
| Change UK | 4.0% (3.1% – 4.9%) | 0 | – | |||
| UKIP | 2.6% (2.1% – 3.1%) | 0 | -24 | |||
| SNP | 2.7% (2.1% – 3.3%) | 2 | – | |||
| Plaid Cymru | 0.8% (0.7% – 0.9%) | 1 | – |
Likeliest Outcomes (Votes)
| Outcome (Votes) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| Brexit Party Liberal Democrats Labour Conservatives Green | 29.9% | |
| Brexit Party Labour Liberal Democrats Conservatives Green | 29.2% | |
| Brexit Party Liberal Democrats Labour Green Conservatives | 13.4% | |
| Brexit Party Labour Liberal Democrats Green Conservatives | 11.7% | |
| Brexit Party Liberal Democrats Conservatives Labour Green | 7.6% | |
| All Others | <5% |
Party Position (Votes) for National Parties
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | |
| Brexit Party | 100% | ||||||
| Liberal Democrats | 55.0% | 42.3% | 2.7% | <1% | |||
| Labour | 43.1% | 43.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | <1% | ||
| Green | <1% | 2.4% | 27.3% | 68.0% | 1.9% | <1% | |
| Conservatives | 1.8% | 11.5% | 59.9% | 26.0% | <1% | <1% | |
| Change UK | <1% | 2.9% | 87.4% | 9.7% | |||
| UKIP | <1% | 9.9% | 90.0% |