This is our latest forecast for the 23rd of May 2019 European Parliament Election in Great Britain.
This is a Forwardcast representing the result we expect on the 23rd of May.
What does your forecast show? – We show the expected range of percentage vote for each party, together with the central forecast. The range is a 50% confidence interval (but will move to a 95% confidence interval for our final forecast). We also show the expected number of seats across the whole of Great Britain.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
Do you do a regional forecast for Wales and Scotland? – For a General Election we would conduct a forecast at regional and sub-regional levels. At present the level of polling data for the UK does not support regional forecasts.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Key Features
Our updated forecast shows the Brexit Party continuing to have strong performance with a rapidly collapsing level of support for the Conservatives. We now give the Greens almost a 1 in 3 chance of registering more votes than the Conservatives, with an over 30% chance of the Conservatives being in 5th place on the national share of the vote.
Both the Conservatives and the Greens are at levels of support where just an extra percentage point either way can have a dramatic effect on the number of seats they achieve (due to the d’Hondt system of PR utilised for the election). This means that although we may be quite accurate on their final vote tally, the seat forecasts for both parties should be taken with a note of caution.
Regional sub-samples indicate that support for the SNP and Plaid Cymru is firming up and they should achieve at least the same outcome in seats as 2014.
There is no forecast for Northern Ireland due to limited data. We anticipate a similar result to 2014 (1 seat each for Sinn Fein, DUP and UUP).
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast Seats | Change on 2014 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brexit Party | 36.6% (34.8% – 38.4%) | 34 | +34 | |||
| Labour | 17.8% (14.2% – 21.4%) | 15 | -5 | |||
| Liberal Democrats | 16.4% (14.7% – 18.1%) | 10 | +9 | |||
| Conservatives | 10.0% (7.9% – 12.1%) | 4 | -15 | |||
| Green | 8.5% (6.1% – 10.9%) | 3 | – | |||
| Change UK | 4.2% (3.1% – 5.3%) | 0 | – | |||
| UKIP | 2.5% (2.0% – 3.0%) | 0 | -24 | |||
| SNP | 3.1% (2.7% – 3.5%) | 3 | +1 | |||
| Plaid Cymru | 0.9% (0.4% – 1.4%) | 1 | – |
| Outcome (Votes) | Probability | |
|---|---|---|
| Brexit Party Labour Liberal Democrats Conservative Green | 43.7% | |
| Brexit Party Labour Liberal Democrats Green Conservative | 21.0% | |
| Brexit Party Liberal Democrats Labour Conservative Green | 19.9% | |
| Brexit Party Liberal Democrats Labour Green Conservative | 9.5% | |
| All Others | <5% | |
| Brexit Party beats Labour | 100.0% | |
| Labour beats Conservatives | 96.7% | |
| Labour beats Liberal Democrats | 66.5% | |
| Liberal Democrats beat Conservatives | 98.6% | |
| Greens beat Conservatives | 32.5% | |
| Greens Change UK UKIP | 84.2% | |
| Greens UKIP Change UK | 10.4% | |
| All Others | <5% |
These figures not taking into account I presume the two new polls today, one from YouGov, one from Opinium.. (there’s also one from Panelbase I think though the fieldwork is over a longer period of time).
You need to look at today’s forecast. We’ll have another one tomorrow morning as well.