This is our first forecast for the 8th of June 2017 General Election in the UK.
The forecast below is based on an election occurring on the day of the forecast using the latest polling data and does not include any adjustment for potential movement before the actual Polling Day.
UK Forecast
| Party | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Conservatives | 394 – 397 |
| Labour | 174 – 175 |
| SNP | 45 – 46 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10 – 12 |
| Plaid Cymru | 2 – 3 |
| Green | 1 |
| Speaker | 1 |
| Northern Irish | 18 |
Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 146
This majority assumes 4 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit in Parliament.
We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.
Scotland
| Party | Forecast |
|---|---|
| SNP | 45 – 46 |
| Conservatives | 11 |
| Liberal Democrats | 2 – 3 |
Wales
| Party | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Conservatives | 27 |
| Labour | 9 |
| Plaid Cymru | 2 – 3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 1 |