This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
Our latest forecast indicates a decline in support for UKIP reflected in a move to Labour and the Conservatives. There is little movement in seats predicted however and Labour have increased their lead marginally.
Changes indicated from yesterday’s forecast.
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 34.67% (+1.23%) | 285 (+4) |
| Conservatives | 34.64% (+0.70%) | 272 (+2) |
| UKIP | 12.89% (-2.38%) | 2 (nc) |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.93% (-0.37%) | 24 (-3) |
| Green | 5.11 (+0.78%) | 1 (nc) |
| SNP | 3.68% (+0.03%) | 44 (-3) |
| PC | 0.65% | 3 (nc) |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 (nc) | |
| Irish | 18 |