This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
This is a new forecast format where we will present just the centre point of the range of possibilities. We will attempt to update this forecast every day until the 7th of May.
Forecast
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 33.94% | 270 |
| Labour | 33.44% | 281 |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.30% | 27 |
| UKIP | 15.27% | 2 |
| SNP | 3.65% | 47 |
| PC | 0.65% | 3 |
| Green | 4.33% | 1 |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 | |
| Irish | 18 |
What a grotesquely undemocratic system – giving the LibDems 27 seats for 8.30% of the votes, but only 2 seats to UKIP on 15.27% of the vote. And the likely outcome, a Labour – SNP alliance although there is no opportunity for English voters to vote against SNP.
The Liberal Democrats have vigorously opposed this system and fought to change it. If you don’t like the electoral system, blame the Conservatives, who funded the campaign to keep it.
And if you want to exclude Scottish voters from influencing English politics, English voters can (in many places) vote for the English Democrats, who are standing on exactly that platform. However, giving all parts of the Union a say in its decision-making is certainly democratic. If one part of the UK could veto other parties, I guess that Scotland would veto UKIP, Wales would veto the Tories, England would veto the SNP, which would mean Labour would rule forever… Hang on, maybe there’s something in this idea.. 🙂
(Ulster would of course say No to using a veto because the FM and DFM would never agree about it)
What happened, or did I just make a mistake ? In the space of two days your SNP projection jumped from 31 to 47 ! As the polls have not changed, what has happened in your ‘process’ to generate the changes ? Thank you
A nice big fat and juicy YouGov poll in Scotland together with some constituency polling is what changed.