UK 2015 – Forecast – 24th Nov 2014


This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here.

Forecast

Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows.

Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI
Conservatives 310 294 – 324 268 – 352
Labour 266 252 – 282 235 – 305
Liberal Democrats 22 20 – 24 13 – 30
UKIP 1 0 – 3 0 – 19
SNP 16 14 – 18 9 – 25
PC 0 0 -2 0 – 10
Others inc. Green (GB) 4 3 – 5 2 – 10
Irish 18 n/a n/a

Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for votes (mainland GB) is as follows.

Party Vote% – Mid Point Vote% 50% CI Vote% 95% CI
Conservatives 33.0 31.8 – 34.2 29.5 – 36.6
Labour 29.4 28.6 – 30.2 27.2 – 31.5
Liberal Democrats 15.7 15.2 – 16.3 14.1 – 17.3
UKIP 13.1 11.8 – 14.4 9.2 – 16.9
Green 4.0 3.4 – 4.6 2.0 – 5.8

Our probability of different outcomes is as follows.

Event Probability
Conservative Minority 61.6%
Conservative Majority 23.5%
Exact Tie Labour and Conservative 0.6%
Labour Minority 14.3%
UKIP more votes than Liberal Democrats 15.4%

What are the main points of your forecast?

We identify the following events / features.

  • We have seen a decline in Conservative support in the past week. Support for Labour has remained stable, but our % vote forecast for Labour is slightly lower than last week (due to an increase in SNP support).
  • The covariance analysis indicates that increases in UKIP support coming from switchers from the two main parties is still weighted towards the Conservatives. Labour loses significant support though when the UKIP poll ratings increase.
  • Although the Conservative lose seats to Labour, they more than make up for this in gaining seats from the Liberal Democrats
  • The SNP are set to at least double their seats in Scotland. If they maintain their current poll rating up to the General Election (at the moment we are expecting the SNP support to fall back in the next few months) we expect them to even outperform Labour on polling day in Scotland.
  • UKIP are on the cusp of a level of support which, in scenarios with a poor Conservative turnout, could see them winning up to 20 seats.
  • There is increasing evidence that support for the Conservatives is moving up in the manner we would expect before a General Election. This gives us greater confidence that will receive the levels of support we are predicting
  • Wales – There is very little polling data to model the outcome in Wales. Our forecast on these seats currently contains a great deal of uncertainty

Why is your forecast different to that of Stephen Fisher?

We use the same fundamental forecasting principle as Professor Stephen Fisher with the following crucial differences.

  • We use a different sample of elections to model movement of party support prior to a national vote
  • We specifically model UKIP support and do some additional local analysis on where UKIP might do well
  • We have regional models which help to capture specific local peculiarities (for example, we model Scotland independent of the rest of Great Britain, allowing us to capture the current spike in support for the SNP – Stephen Fisher currently does not do this).
  • We have used some components of this methodology before and that allows us to make corrections as we compare our outcome to real results.

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