Forecast #GE2019 – 12th September 2019   Recently updated !


This is our latest forecast for a potential November 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a 50% confidence interval on the regional vote share for the major parties and the mid-point of the range of likely seat possibilites.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – New polls from ComRes poll and YouGov have confirmed a clear trend in Conservative and Labour support that we have seen previously but not to a level of statistical significance.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Hung Parliament – Possible Labour / SNP / Lib Dem coalition”.

Our forecast has been updated with the introduction of new data indicating a clear movement of support from the Conservatives to Labour over the past week. This movement in support has evaporated any opportunity for the Conservatives to form a Government.

Although we continue to see evidence of a collapse in the Labour Party’s support across the country, this is now roughly matched by the fall in support for the Conservatives. Outside of London and Wales we see no evidence that the Conservatives will pick up any seats from Labour at all. Indeed, in some seats that Labour won from the Conservatives in 2017, Labour may even increase their majorities.

As a contrast we expect a resurgent Liberal Democrat party to win half of the seats where they were second to the Conservatives in 2017. In Scotland we expect the SNP to regain almost all their losses in 2017 to Labour and the Conservatives.

We see good evidence that support for the Brexit Party is slipping away across the country. This may be due to a news cycle that has emphasised parties that are sitting in the Commons. It may also be due to Brexit Party voters moving to the Conservatives.

Large amounts of polling in the past week has enabled us to firm up our current forecast.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point last month.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives30.2% (27.4% – 33.0%)294 – 303-23 to -14
 Labour25.0% (22.9% – 27.1%)237 – 243-25 to -19
 SNP3.4% 50 – 51+15 to +16
Liberal Democrats19.3% (18.4% – 20.2%)34 – 40+22 to +28
Brexit Party14.3% (11.5% – 16.1%)1 – 2+1 to +2
Plaid Cymru0.4%2 – 4-2 to 0
Green4.0% (3.5% – 4.5%)0 -2-1 to +1
Independent0-2
Speaker 1 –
Northern Ireland 18 

Most likely result – Hung Parliament
Potential Labour / SNP / Lib Dem coalition

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2015
SNP44.0%50 – 51+15 to +16
Conservatives20.0%3 – 4-10 to -9
Liberal Democrats 13.8%3 – 5 -1 to +1
Labour11.2%0 – 2-7 to -5
Brexit Party 8.6%
Greens2.1%  

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2015
Labour 27.4% 19 – 20-9 to -8
Conservatives 26.0% 13 – 15+5 to +7
Liberal Democrats 24.3% 3 – 4+3 to +4
Plaid Cymru7.6% 2 – 4-2 to 0
Brexit Party13.2%   
Greens1.4%   

Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2015
Labour34.7%42 – 44-4 to -2
Conservatives26.2%24 – 25+3 to +4
Liberal Democrats23.1%5 – 6+2 to +3
Brexit Party10.8%
Greens4.7%

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2015
DUP29.1%8 – 10-2 to 0
Sinn Fein25.0%5 – 7-2 to 0
Alliance24.1%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2
SDLP8.0%0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality

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