US Election Forecast – 31st October 2024


Current Forecast

HarrisTrump
257281

This is our latest Forecast for the 2024 US General Election. Forecast is calculated on a “Nowcast” basis meaning that it is the result if an election were held today.

Probability Trump Victory77.9%
Probability Trump 260+ EC Votes91.3%
Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes97.1%
Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes99.3%
Probability Tie0.8%
50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes271 – 294
Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)281 – 8.6% likely
Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)281 – 8.6% likely

State Forecasts – Prob Trump Winning

StateProbability Trump WinsChange Since Last Forecast
Arizona84.1%Improvement for Trump
Georgia87.3%Slight Improvement for Trump
Michigan41.3%Slight Improvement for Trump
Nevada60.2%Improvement for Harris
North Carolina55.9%Strong Improvement for Harris
Pennsylvania82.8%Strong Improvement for Trump
Wisconsin29.5%Strong Improvement for Harris

Commentary

Another small shift to Trump in the aggregate since our last forecast. Whilst Harris has improved her position in Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, this isn’t enough to counter Trump firming up in Arizona and Pennsylvania. There is some evidence that Michigan is increasingly viable for Trump, which would all but destroy Harris’ chances.

Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy

Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.

Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?

We run 10,000 simulations of the election. Our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in each simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes across all the simulations in aggregate.

Some precition sites like FiveThirtyEight or Nate Silver have a different probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?

Nothing! We all have slightly different modelling philosophies which produce different outcomes.

Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?

Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilities above, but leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.

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