Current Forecast
| Harris | Trump |
|---|---|
| 277 | 261 |
This is our first Forecast for the 2024 US General Election. Forecast is calculated on a “Nowcast” basis meaning that it is the result if an election were held today.
| Probability Trump Victory | 21.95% |
| Probability Trump 260+ EC Votes | 51.23% |
| Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes | 71.43% |
| Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes | 80.51% |
| Probability Tie | 0.67% |
| 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes | 247 – 268 |
| Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) | 268 – 11.3% likely |
| Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution) | 261 – 1.4% likely |
Probability of Harris Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Some precition sites like FiveThirtyEight or Nate Silver have a different probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! We all have slightly different modelling philosophies which produce different outcomes.
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.