This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.
Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.
What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – We have included some data from constituency opinion polls.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Commentary
After yesterday’s low point for the Conservatives, we have them back in second place on votes and seats, but still in a parlous position. Reform and the Tories are still neck and neck in England and it is only Reform’s poorer position in Scotland and Wales that is keeping them in third. The Conservatives are a vote position where even a 0.5% swing to Reform from where the polls are now would push them back into third place, as many seats are on the edge of falling to Reform and the Liberal Democrats.
After some volatility in Scottish sub-samples, there appears to be a consensus that the SNP will stay below 30% of the vote and in the mid teens of seats. There is the possibility of the Conservatives actually picking up SNP seats if the SNP support stays where it is and the Tories make a small recovery north of the border.
We now expect the Reform vote to continue falling and we are moving from last week looking for signs of where they will peak to now looking for signs of where the floor in the current drop in support is.
Labour are still on course for an overwhelming win, but based on a lower share of the vote than a few weeks ago. This makes them more vulnerable to a small swing to the Conservatives as seats that wouldn’t have been Tory on a national 20% share of the vote a month ago would now stay Blue.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 41.6% (+9.5%) | 477 – 512 | +277 to +312 |
| Conservatives | 18.4% (-25.2%) | 44 – 69 | -327 to -302 |
| Reform | 17.7% (+15.7%) | 1 – 22 | +1 to +22 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.7% (-0.8%) | 46 – 55 | +37 to +46 |
| Green | 6.1% (+3.4%) | 0 – 2 | -1 to +1 |
| SNP | 2.5% (-1.4%) | 13 – 16 | -35 to -32 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% (+0.0%) | 2 – 4 | +nc to +2 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Landslide
England
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 43.4% (+9.5%) | 418 – 454 | +237 to +273 |
| Reform | 19.2% (+17.1%) | 1 – 22 | +1 to +22 |
| Conservatives | 19.2% (-28.0%) | 37 – 59 | -316 to -294 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.6% (-0.8%) | 42 – 49 | +35 to +42 |
| Green | 6.6% (+3.6%) | 0 – 2 | -1 to +1 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 35.6% (+17.0%) | 30 – 34 | +29 to +33 |
| SNP | 29.0% (-16.1%) | 13 – 16 | -35 to -32 |
| Conservatives | 15.9% (-9.2%) | 5 – 8 | -1 to +2 |
| Reform | 9.1% (+8.7%) | 0 | nc |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.3% (-2.3%) | 3 – 6 | +1 to +4 |
| Green | 3.2% (+2.1%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 43.1% (+2.2%) | 25 – 28 | +7 to +10 |
| Conservatives | 18.2% (-17.9%) | 0 – 4 | -12 to -8 |
| Reform | 16.2% (+10.7%) | 0 | nc |
| Plaid Cymru | 10.3% (+0.3%) | 2 – 4 | nc to +2 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.3% (+1.3%) | 0 – 1 | nc to +1 |
| Green | 4.1% (+3.0%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | 25.5% (+2.7%) | 6 – 8 | -1 to +1 |
| DUP | 21.6% (-8.9%) | 5 – 7 | -3 to -1 |
| Alliance | 17.2% (+0.5%) | 1 – 3 | nc to +2 |
| SDLP | 12.3% (-2.5%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
| UUP | 12.4% (+0.7%) | 0 – 2 | nc to +2 |
| TUV | 10.0% (new) | 0 | new |
Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality