This is our latest daily forecast for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.
Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.
What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made slight adjustments to our tactical voting assumptions.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Commentary
For the first time ever, our model indicates that Rishi Sunak has a less than 50% chance of holding onto his seat.
We continue to see an SNP recovery in Scotland and anticipate crossover on votes with Labour in the next 48 hours.
The Lib Dems continue to rise slowly and eat into Conservative support in the South.
Richmond and Northallerton
% Chance to Win
Rishi Sunak – 48.7%
Tom Wilson – 43.2%
Lee Martin – 8.0%
Key Features
The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a landslide”.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 41.6% (+9.5%) | 459 – 489 | +259 to +289 |
| Conservatives | 20.2% (-23.5%) | 71 – 94 | -300 to -277 |
| Reform | 15.8% (+13.8%) | 1 – 11 | +1 to +11 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10.3% (-1.3%) | 40 – 44 | +31 to +35 |
| Green | 6.0% (+3.3%) | 0 – 1 | -1 to nc |
| SNP | 3.0% (-0.9%) | 20 – 24 | -28 to -24 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.6% (+0.2%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Landslide
England
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 43.5% (+9.6%) | 407 – 436 | +226 to +255 |
| Conservatives | 21.4% (-25.9%) | 64 – 87 | -289 to -266 |
| Reform | 17.4% (+15.3%) | 1 – 11 | +1 to +11 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.1% (-1.4%) | 36 – 40 | +29 to +33 |
| Green | 6.6% (+3.6%) | 0 – 1 | -1 to 0 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 35.2% (+16.7%) | 26 – 29 | +25 to +28 |
| SNP | 34.6% (-10.4%) | 20 – 24 | -28 to -24 |
| Conservatives | 13.9% (-11.2%) | 3 – 5 | -3 to -1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.9% (-1.7%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Reform | 5.9% (+5.5%) | 0 | nc |
| Greens | 2.4% (+1.4%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 41.9% (+1.0%) | 24 – 26 | +6 to +8 |
| Conservatives | 20.5% (-15.6%) | 2 – 4 | -10 to -8 |
| Reform | 13.9% (+8.5%) | 0 | nc |
| Plaid Cymru | 13.0% (+3.1%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.9% (-0.1%) | 0 – 1 | nc to +1 |
| Greens | 4.6% (+3.6%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | 28.4% (+5.6%) | 6 – 8 | nc to +1 |
| DUP | 20.9% (-9.6%) | 5 – 8 | -2 to +2 |
| Alliance | 15.6% (-1.2%) | 0 – 3 | -1 to +2 |
| UUP | 12.3% (+0.7%) | 0 – 2 | nc to +2 |
| TUV | 12.1% (new) | 0 | new |
| SDLP | 10.5% (-4.3%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality