This is our latest forecast of 2024 for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.
Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.
What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made no methodological or reporting changes since our last forecast.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Key Features
The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a landslide”.
This forecast is likely to change once the final candidate lists are finalised.
Commentary
Over the past few days our forecast has seen a dramatic turn for the worse for the Conservatives. The reason for this is that we are forecasting the final result on July 4th rather than a Nowcast of what the result would be today based on the most recent polls.
Our model assumed some form of improvement in the polls for the incumbent party as the election campaign begins. What we actually saw was a fall in the polling figures for the Conservatives across the country, with that accelerating in the past few days. There is a degree of uncertainty around this, hence you will have noticed that the ranges for our seat forecasts for the Conservatives and Labour have widened for the last half week. These ranges should slowly close again over the next week if polling stabilises.
Our forecast this afternoon is the first one in this election campaign where we have moved our range of expected Reform seats out to include the possibility of winning a seat. Due to the way our model works, we have no single seat that this represents – our model shows at statistically significant aggregation one of Barnsley North, Barnsley South or Hartlepool being won by Richard Tice’s candidates. If the Conservatives continue to fall, or Reform continues to rise, expect this range to increase.
Finally, a word of caution. The current swings represented by recent polling are quite extreme. It is difficult to forecast in ranges of party support that we haven’t seen in recent years in actual elections, particularly the effects of tactical vote and incumbency benefit together with regional factors. If you are looking for comparative seat predictions, we recommend NOT relying on the extrapolated outputs from single polls, but rather large sample MRP polling / modelling which will do the best job of taking into account local conditions.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 44.9% (+12.8%) | 484 – 506 | +284 to +306 |
| Conservatives | 22.1% (-21.5%) | 78 – 98 | -293 to -273 |
| Reform | 12.3% (+10.3%) | 0 – 1 | nc to +1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 8.8% (-2.7%) | 25 – 29 | +16 to +20 |
| Green | 6.5% (+3.8%) | 0 – 1 | -1 to nc |
| SNP | 2.8% (-1.1%) | 16 – 19 | -32 to -29 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% (+0.1%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Landslide
England
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 46.5% (+12.6%) | 425 – 449 | +244 to +268 |
| Conservatives | 23.5% (-23.7%) | 70 – 91 | -283 to -262 |
| Reform | 13.4% (+11.4%) | 0 – 1 | nc to +1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.3% (-3.1%) | 21 – 26 | +14 to +19 |
| Green | 7.0% (+4.0%) | 0 – 1 | -1 to 0 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 37.3% (+18.8%) | 28 – 34 | +27 to +33 |
| SNP | 32.3% (-12.7%) | 16 – 19 | -33 to -30 |
| Conservatives | 13.1% (-12.0%) | 3 – 7 | -3 to +1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.7% (-1.8%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Reform | 5.3% (+4.9%) | 0 | nc |
| Greens | 4.1% (+3.1%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 47.7% (+6.7%) | 26 – 29 | +8 to +11 |
| Conservatives | 22.2% (-13.9%) | 1 – 4 | -11 to -8 |
| Plaid Cymru | 11.0% (+1.0%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
| Reform | 9.6% (+4.2%) | 0 | nc |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.6% (-0.4%) | 0 | nc |
| Greens | 4.0% (+2.9%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
London
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 48.0% (+0.6%) | 55 – 58 | +3 to +6 |
| Conservatives | 23.7% (-8.3%) | 12 – 16 | -7 to -3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.0% (-4.0%) | 3 – 6 | -1 to +2 |
| Reform | 8.3% (+6.9%) | 0 | nc |
| Greens | 8.9% (+5.9%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | 30.5% (+7.8%) | 6 – 8 | nc to +1 |
| DUP | 24.5% (-6.0%) | 5 – 7 | -2 to +1 |
| Alliance | 17.8% (+1.0%) | 1 – 3 | nc to +2 |
| UUP | 14.6% (+2.9%) | 0 – 2 | nc to +2 |
| SDLP | 12.3% (-2.5%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality