Forecast #GE2024 – 31st May 2024


This is our latest forecast of 2024 for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.

Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.

What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made no methodological or reporting changes since our last forecast.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a landslide”.

This forecast is likely to change once the final candidate lists are finalised.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour44.6% (+12.5%)467 – 482+267 to +282
Conservatives23.4% (-20.2%)103 – 117-268 to -254
Reform11.8% (+9.8%)0nc
Liberal Democrats8.8% (-2.8%)25 – 28+16 to +19
Green5.8% (+3.1%)0 – 1-1 to nc
SNP2.7% (-1.2%)15 – 18-33 to -30
Plaid Cymru0.5% (+0.1%)1 – 4-1 to +2
Speaker 1 nc
Northern Ireland 18 nc

Most likely result – Labour Landslide

England

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour46.5% (+12.6%)410 – 425+229 to +244
Conservatives24.8% (-22.5%)95 – 107-258 to -246
Reform12.9% (+10.8%)0nc
Liberal Democrats9.3% (-3.1%)20 – 25+13 to +18
Green6.4% (+3.4%)0 – 1-1 to 0
Speaker 1 nc

Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2019
Labour36.0% (+17.4%)28 – 32+27 to +31
SNP31.3% (-13.7%)15 – 18-33 to -30
Conservatives16.5% (-8.7%)5 – 8-1 to +2
Liberal Democrats 7.9% (-1.6%)2 – 6nc to +4
Reform5.1% (+4.6%)0nc
Greens3.2% (+2.2%)0nc

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Labour47.1% (+6.1%)25 – 29+7 to +11
Conservatives22.9% (-13.2%)1 – 4-11 to -8
Plaid Cymru10.9% (+1.0%)1 – 4nc to +2
Reform10.4% (+4.9%)0nc
Liberal Democrats 5.3% (-0.7%)0nc
Greens3.4% (+2.4%)0nc

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Labour48.7% (+0.6%)55 – 58+3 to +6
Conservatives24.3% (-7.7%)12 – 16-7 to -3
Liberal Democrats10.9% (-4.0%)3 – 6-1 to +2
Reform7.7% (+6.4%)0nc
Greens8.2% (+5.1%)0nc

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2019
Sinn Fein30.5% (+7.8%)6 – 8nc to +1
DUP24.5% (-6.0%)5 – 7-2 to +1
Alliance17.8% (+1.0%)1 – 3nc to +2
UUP14.6% (+2.9%)0 – 2nc to +2
SDLP12.3% (-2.5%)1 – 3-1 to +1

Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality

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