This is our latest forecast of 2024 for the 2024 General Election in the UK. This forecast is made on the basis of an election taking place on 4 July 2024.
Forecasts are made on the basis of new constituency boundaries.
What does your forecast show? – We show the most likely range of possible seats for each party.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What has changed since the last forecast? – We have made no methodological or reporting changes since our last forecast.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainty in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Key Features
The overall summary of our forecast is “Labour on course for a landslide”.
This forecast is likely to change once the final candidate lists are finalised.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 44.2% (+12.1%) | 446 – 448 | +246 to +248 |
| Conservatives | 24.6% (-19.1%) | 133 – 136 | -234 to -231 |
| Reform | 11.6% (+9.6%) | 0 | nc |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.1% (-2.5%) | 25 – 28 | +16 to +19 |
| Green | 5.4% (+2.7%) | 0 – 1 | -1 to nc |
| SNP | 2.8% (-1.1%) | 18 – 20 | -30 to -28 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.6% (+0.1%) | 2 – 4 | nc to +2 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Landslide
England
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 46.0% (+12.1%) | 393 – 395 | +212 to +214 |
| Conservatives | 25.7% (-21.5%) | 122 – 126 | -231 to -227 |
| Reform | 12.6% (+10.6%) | 0 | nc |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.6% (-2.8%) | 21 – 25 | +14 to +18 |
| Green | 5.9% (+2.8%) | 0 – 1 | -1 to 0 |
| Speaker | 1 | nc |
Most likely result – Labour Majority of seats
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 34.4% (+15.8%) | 27 – 29 | +26 to +28 |
| SNP | 32.1% (-12.9%) | 18 – 20 | -30 to -28 |
| Conservatives | 17./58% (-7.6%) | 5 – 8 | -1 to +2 |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.8% (-1.8%) | 2 – 5 | nc to +3 |
| Reform | 5.3% (+4.8%) | 0 | nc |
| Greens | 2.9% (+1.9%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 45.0% (+4.1%) | 24 – 26 | +6 to +8 |
| Conservatives | 24.2% (-11.9%) | 3 – 5 | -9 to -7 |
| Plaid Cymru | 12.1% (+2.2%) | 2 – 4 | nc to +2 |
| Reform | 9.6% (+4.2%) | 0 | nc |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.5% (-0.5%) | 0 | nc |
| Greens | 3.5% (+2.5%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
London
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 47.8% (-0.4%) | 54 – 56 | +2 to +4 |
| Conservatives | 24.6% (-7.4%) | 14 – 16 | -5 to -3 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.7% (-3.3%) | 4 – 6 | -1 to +2 |
| Reform | 8.2% (+6.9%) | 0 | nc |
| Greens | 7.6% (+4.5%) | 0 | nc |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Fein | 30.5% (+7.8%) | 6 – 8 | nc to +1 |
| DUP | 24.5% (-6.0%) | 5 – 7 | -2 to +1 |
| Alliance | 17.8% (+1.0%) | 1 – 3 | nc to +2 |
| UUP | 14.6% (+2.9%) | 0 – 2 | nc to +2 |
| SDLP | 12.3% (-2.5%) | 1 – 3 | -1 to +1 |
Most Likely Result – Sinn Fein Plurality
Pretty static at the moment isn’t it – I think most people probably made up their minds a long time ago. What do you do with the “don’t knows”? How does that factor in to your calculations?
The opposite! The Tories are beginning to sink (compare this forecast to a week ago) and they are close to a point where they could drop below 100 seats.