This is our latest forecast for a potential November 2019 General Election in the UK.
The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.
What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a 50% confidence interval on the regional vote share for the major parties and the mid-point of the range of likely seat possibilites.
What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.
What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.
I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.
Key Features
The overall summary of our forecast is “Narrow Majority / Minority for the Conservatives”.
Our forecast indicates that Boris Johnson will achieve a narrow majority with greater uncertainty of the actual level of seats than our last forecast. This narrow majority is achieved by an increase in seats in England and Wales (including London) to offset a collapse in Scotland.
We see evidence of a collapse in the Labour Party’s support across the country to a position where they are likely to land behind the Liberal Democrats in votes outside London and Wales. Despite this, Labour will win at least five times as many seats as the Liberal Democrats due to the First Past the Post System (though the Liberal Democrats themselves benefit from this in Scotland).
We see good evidence that support for the Brexit Party is slipping away across the country. This may be due to a news cycle that has emphasised parties that are sitting in the Commons. It may also be due to Brexit Party voters moving to the Conservatives.
Large amounts of polling in the past week has enabled us to firm up our current forecast.
Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point last month.
UK Forecast
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 31.5% (29.0% – 34.0%) | 310 – 334 | -7 to +17 |
| Labour | 23.7% (21.7% – 25.7%) | 220 – 230 | -42 to -32 |
| SNP | 3.5% | 49 – 51 | +14 to +16 |
| Liberal Democrats | 20.2% (18.8% – 21.6%) | 34 – 46 | +22 to +34 |
| Brexit Party | 13.5% (10.7% – 16.3%) | 1 – 3 | +1 to +3 |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.4% | 2 -45 | -2 to 0 |
| Green | 4.0% (3.6% – 4.4%) | 0 -2 | -1 to +1 |
| Speaker | 1 | – | |
| Northern Ireland | 18 |
Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 1 (assumes 1 Speaker and 6 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit)
We have specific regional forecasts as well.
Scotland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Change on 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 41.9% (37.5% – 46.3%) | 49 – 51 | +14 to +16 |
| Conservatives | 20.2% (16.9% – 23.5%) | 3 – 7 | -10 to -6 |
| Liberal Democrats | 14.8% (9.2% – 20.4%) | 4 – 6 | 0 to +2 |
| Labour | 13.2% (9.2% – 17.2%) | 0 – 2 | -7 to -5 |
| Brexit Party | 6.9% (3.5% – 10.3%) | ||
| Greens | 2.8% (0.8% – 4.8%) |
Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats
Wales
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 25.7% | 18 – 20 | -10 to -8 |
| Conservatives | 26.6% | 14 – 18 | +6 to +10 |
| Liberal Democrats | 23.0% | 3 – 5 | +3 to +5 |
| Plaid Cymru | 7.1% | 2 – 4 | -2 to 0 |
| Brexit Party | 13.6% | ||
| Greens | 3.8% |
Most Likely Result – Labour Plurality of Seats
London
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 34.3% | 41 – 43 | -8 to -6 |
| Conservatives | 27.7% | 24 – 26 | +3 to +5 |
| Liberal Democrats | 24.8% | 5 – 7 | +2 to +4 |
| Brexit Party | 7.1% | ||
| Greens | 5.7% |
Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats
Northern Ireland
| Party | % Vote | Forecast | Changes on 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DUP | 29.1% | 8 – 10 | -2 to 0 |
| Sinn Fein | 25.0% | 5 – 7 | -2 to 0 |
| Alliance | 24.1% | 1 – 3 | +1 to +3 |
| UUP | 9.1% | 0 – 2 | 0 to +2 |
| SDLP | 8.0% | 0 | – |
| Independent | 1 | – |
Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality