EU Referendum – Forecast 23rd June 2016

This post has been updated to take account of the full details of the MORI poll. This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is an On the Day Forecast, meaning it is a forecast published on the day of the referendum including polling results published this morning, […]


EU Referendum – Forecast 22nd June 2016

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Forward in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast will be the result when the referendum is held on tomorrow. Our opinion poll tracker stopped on Thursday, the day of the murder of Jo Cox MP. Our […]


EU Referendum – Forecast 21st June 2016

This post has been updated with the Survation and ORB polls released on the afternoon of the 21st of June. This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Forward in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast will be the result when the referendum is […]


EU Referendum – Forecast 20th June 2016

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Forward in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result when the referendum is held on Thursday. Our opinion poll tracker stopped on Thursday, the day of the murder of Jo Cox MP. This […]


EU Referendum – Updated Poll Tracker

This is our updated poll tracker showing the movement in opinion during the campaign up to the murder of Jo Cox. From this weekend we move to a forward in time forecast projecting the result on Thursday based on the latest polling information.


Scottish Parliament – Forecast 5th May 2016

This is our forecast for the Scottish Parliament Election. This is an on the day forecast. Party List Vote Seats List Change (2011) Seat Change (2011) SNP 41.8% 69 -2.2% n/c Conservatives 20.0% 24 +7.6% +9 Labour 19.1% 22 -7.2% –15 Greens 8.0% 8 +3.6% +6 Liberal Democrats 6.0% 6 +0.8% +1 […]


EU Referendum – Forecast 3rd May 2016

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker. Our Forecast is as follows. Probability of a Leave […]


EU Referendum – Forecast 2nd May 2016

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker. Our Forecast is as follows. Probability of a Leave […]


EU Referendum – Forecast 1st May 2016

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker. Our Forecast is as follows. Probability of a Leave […]


EU Referendum – Forecast 28th April 2016

This is our latest forecast for the EU Referendum. It is a Point in Time forecast, meaning it is what we forecast would be the result if the referendum was held today. It is the equivalent of a sophisticated poll tracker. Our Forecast is as follows. Probability of a Leave […]