UK 2015 – Forecast – 27th February

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our latest forecast sees an improvement in the Conservative party position, with a mid-point prediction similar to the 2010 result. The […]


Party Support Movements since the start of 2015   Recently updated !

We have examined the YouGov opinion poll results since the start of 2015 to assess whether any discernible movement in party support can be determined. In the analysis below we have undertaken two pieces of statistical modelling on the opinion poll values for each of the five main UK parties. First we have performed a […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 18th February 2015   Recently updated !

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Why have you not produced a forecast for three weeks? We have been analysing the last month’s worth of polling data to […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 28th January 2015

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 19th January 2015

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats […]


UK 2015 – Why our next forecast will look different 2

We will shortly be publishing our new forecast for the 2015 General Election. It will be very different from previous forecasts where we have indicated a clear Conservative lead. Why the Change? Our previous forecasts have been based on the assumption that the movement in Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat votes will be similar to […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 6th January 2015

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI Conservatives 310 295 – 321 267 – 338 Labour 275 264 […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 24th Nov 2014

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI Conservatives 310 294 – 324 268 – 352 Labour 266 252 […]


Rochester and Strood – Assessing Predictions

Here’s a table to show how we compared with the major polling firms. The final column shows the absolute difference on the percentage forecasts – the smaller, the better the forecast. Forecast Conservatives UKIP Labour Abs Diff Actual Result 34.81 42.1 16.76 Survation 33 48 16 8.47 Forecast UK 31.9 47.2 15.9 8.87 Ashcroft Polling […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 17th Nov 2014

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI Conservatives 321 306 – 335 275 – 360 Labour 259 244 […]