EWMA Analysis of YouGov Poll Shares   Recently updated !

In the past few weeks we have looked a methods of trying to track a significant change in the level of support for the main parties in the YouGov polls. Today we look at the use of EWMA Charts which are a form of statistical control used in engineering and […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 16th March

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our forecast sees a levelling in the Conservative midpoint position, but a clear reduction in their […]


Is the Conservative Lead ‘Outside Margin of Error’?

On the Spectator website today, Mark Gettleson wrote that, This was a landmark week in this long election campaign. It was the first this year in which two pollsters (YouGov and Lord Ashcroft) each posted a Conservative lead outside of the margin of error. A 4 per cent lead for […]


Party Movements in February 2015

Last week we examined the movement of support for all the main UK parties since the start of 2015. Since then we now have a complete set of polling data from YouGov for February so we can explore movement during that month. In the analysis below we have built a […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 27th February

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our latest forecast sees an improvement in the Conservative party position, with a mid-point prediction similar […]


Party Support Movements since the start of 2015 1

We have examined the YouGov opinion poll results since the start of 2015 to assess whether any discernible movement in party support can be determined. In the analysis below we have undertaken two pieces of statistical modelling on the opinion poll values for each of the five main UK parties. […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 18th February 2015

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Why have you not produced a forecast for three weeks? We have been analysing the last month’s […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 28th January 2015

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 19th January 2015

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid […]


UK 2015 – Why our next forecast will look different 4

We will shortly be publishing our new forecast for the 2015 General Election. It will be very different from previous forecasts where we have indicated a clear Conservative lead. Why the Change? Our previous forecasts have been based on the assumption that the movement in Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat […]