Welsh Senedd – Forecast 6th May 2021

This is our final forecast for the Welsh Senedd Election. This is an on the day forecast. Party Const Vote Const Seats List Vote Final Seats Labour 39.5% (+4.8%) 23 (-4) 30.1% (-1.4%) 26 (-3) Conservatives 31.2% (+10.2%) 11 (+5) 25.8% (+7.0%) 18 (+7) Plaid Cymru 20.7% (+1.2%) 6 (n/c) […]


Scottish Parliament – Forecast 6th May 2021

This is our final forecast for the Scottish Parliament Election. This is an on the day forecast and was adjusted at 1130am (slight chage to percentage forecasts but no change to seats). Party Const Vote Const Seats List Vote Final Seats SNP 49.0% (+2.5%) 63 (+4) 37.9% (-4.8%) 64 (+1) […]


Scottish Parliament – Forecast 3rd May 2021 1

This is our latest forecast for the Scottish Parliament Election. This is a forward looking forecast. Party Const Vote Const Seats List Vote Final Seats SNP 46.4% (-0.1%) 60 (+1) 36.0% (-5.7%) 62 (-1) Conservatives 20.4% (-1.6%) 7 (n/c) 21.2% (-1.7%) 27 (-4) Labour 21.0% (-1.6%) 2 (-1) 16.7% (-2.4) 20 […]


US Election Forecast – 3rd November 2020

Current Forecast Biden Trump 349 (nc) 187 (nc) Changes from yesterday This is our latest Forecast. Unless any new polling is released this is our final forecast and includes our central point prediction for each state. On polling day we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a Trump win […]


US Election Forecast – 2nd November 2020

Current Forecast Biden Trump 349 (nc) 187 (nc) Changes from yesterday This is our latest Forecast. From now until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday. With one days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with […]


US Election Forecast – 1st November 2020

Current Forecast Biden Trump 349 (-6) 187 (+6) Changes from yesterday This is our latest Forecast. From now until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday. With two days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with […]


US Election Forecast – 31st October 2020

Current Forecast Biden Trump 355 181 Changes from last Nowcast This is our first Forecast. From today until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday. With three days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a […]


US Election Nowcast – 30th October 2020 2

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 356 (+16) 180 (-16) Changes from last Nowcast This is our final Nowcast. From tomorrow we will provide a Forecast for what we expect the result to be on Polling Day. Probability Trump Victory 0.00% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.02% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes […]


US Election Nowcast – 28th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 340 (-13) 196 (+13) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.01% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.42% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 3.05% Probability Tie 0.01% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 178 – 211 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]


US Election Nowcast – 26th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 353 (-12) 183 (+12) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.00% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.19% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 1.36% Probability Tie 0.00% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 166 – 197 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]