US Election Forecast – 3rd November 2020

Current Forecast Biden Trump 349 (nc) 187 (nc) Changes from yesterday This is our latest Forecast. Unless any new polling is released this is our final forecast and includes our central point prediction for each state. On polling day we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a Trump win […]


US Election Forecast – 2nd November 2020

Current Forecast Biden Trump 349 (nc) 187 (nc) Changes from yesterday This is our latest Forecast. From now until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday. With one days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with […]


US Election Forecast – 1st November 2020

Current Forecast Biden Trump 349 (-6) 187 (+6) Changes from yesterday This is our latest Forecast. From now until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday. With two days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with […]


US Election Forecast – 31st October 2020

Current Forecast Biden Trump 355 181 Changes from last Nowcast This is our first Forecast. From today until Polling Day we will publish each day what we think the result will be from voting on Tuesday. With three days to go we forecast a decisive win for Biden with a […]


US Election Nowcast – 30th October 2020 2

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 356 (+16) 180 (-16) Changes from last Nowcast This is our final Nowcast. From tomorrow we will provide a Forecast for what we expect the result to be on Polling Day. Probability Trump Victory 0.00% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.02% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes […]


US Election Nowcast – 28th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 340 (-13) 196 (+13) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.01% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.42% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 3.05% Probability Tie 0.01% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 178 – 211 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]


US Election Nowcast – 26th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 353 (-12) 183 (+12) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.00% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.19% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 1.36% Probability Tie 0.00% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 166 – 197 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]


US Election Nowcast – 24th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 365 (-11) 171 (+11) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.00% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.11% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 0.30% Probability Tie 0.00% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 160 – 186 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]


US Election Nowcast – 22nd October 2020 2

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 376 (+26) 160 (-26) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.00% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.00% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 0.00% Probability Tie 0.00% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 148 – 170 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]


US Election Nowcast – 20th October 2020

Current Nowcast Biden Trump 350 (+6) 188 (-6) Changes from last Nowcast Probability Trump Victory 0.07% Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes 0.87% Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes 2.43% Probability Tie 0.01% 50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes 170 – 211 Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob) […]