UK 2015 – Forecast – 28th January 2015   Recently updated !

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 19th January 2015

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats […]


UK 2015 – Why our next forecast will look different

We will shortly be publishing our new forecast for the 2015 General Election. It will be very different from previous forecasts where we have indicated a clear Conservative lead. Why the Change? Our previous forecasts have been based on the assumption that the movement in Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat votes will be similar to […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 6th January 2015

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI Conservatives 310 295 – 321 267 – 338 Labour 275 264 […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 24th Nov 2014

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI Conservatives 310 294 – 324 268 – 352 Labour 266 252 […]


Rochester and Strood – Assessing Predictions

Here’s a table to show how we compared with the major polling firms. The final column shows the absolute difference on the percentage forecasts – the smaller, the better the forecast. Forecast Conservatives UKIP Labour Abs Diff Actual Result 34.81 42.1 16.76 Survation 33 48 16 8.47 Forecast UK 31.9 47.2 15.9 8.87 Ashcroft Polling […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 17th Nov 2014

This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI Conservatives 321 306 – 335 275 – 360 Labour 259 244 […]


Rochester and Strood Forecast – 12th November 2014

This is a point-in-time forecast for the Rochester and Strood by-election. The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for each candidate’s vote share. Party Mid Point 50% Intervals 95% Intervals Conservative 31.9 30.3 – 33.4 27.4 – 36.3 UKIP 47.2 44.9 – 49.4 40.7 – 53.7 Labour 15.9 13.4 – 18.4 8.7 – 21.9 The probability […]


Rochester and Strood Forecast – 2nd November 2014

This is a point-in-time forecast for the Rochester and Strood by-election. The table below shows the 50% and 95% confidence intervals for each candidate’s vote share. Party Mid Point 50% Intervals 95% Intervals Conservative 30.9 29.4 – 32.4 26.5 – 35.4 UKIP 44.8 42.6 – 47.1 38.3 – 51.4 Labour 18.8 16.3 – 21.2 11.5 – 25.9 […]


UK 2015 – Forecast – 28th October 2014 2

This is the first of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. Forecast Our mid point and confidence interval forecast for seats is as follows. Party Seats – Mid Point Seats 50% CI Seats 95% CI Conservatives 324 318 – 328 306 – 335 Labour 268 259 […]