|353 (-12)||183 (+12)|
|Probability Trump Victory||0.00%|
|Probability Trump 250+ EC Votes||0.19%|
|Probability Trump 240+ EC Votes||1.36%|
|50% Confidence Interval Trump EC Votes||166 – 197|
|Trump Modal EC Vote (EC Vote value with highest prob)||205 – 4.7% likely|
|Trump Median EC Vote (Centre of Probability Distribution)||183 – 3.9% likely|
|Type of State||EC Votes||States|
|Safe Biden – Swing State||75||Pennsylvania (20)|
New Hampshire (4)
Nebraska 2 (1)
Maine 2 (1)
|Strong Biden||59||Texas (38)|
North Carolina (15)
|Soft Trump||40||Florida (29)|
|Strong Trump||31||Ohio (18)|
|Safe Trump – Swing State||35||Alabama (9)|
South Carolina (9)
As expected, the polls are indicating a slow increase in spport for Trump as we move towards the Election. Expect to see some tightening of the race from now till polling day as the reality of the Election makes voters crystalise their partisanship.
Biden is still in a commanding lead – on just the safe States alone he has 274 Electoral College votes, enough for him to lose everything else and still win. With strong positions in Texas and Florida as well, the Democrats are currently set to regain the White House.
Some States are in desperate need of new polling to clarify trends (for eg Texas).
|State||Status||Prob Biden Win||Commentary|
|Alabama||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|Alaska||Strong Trump||20.3%||No new polling|
|43.3%||Trump continues to pick up support and is now in the lead|
|38.0%||Trump now in the lead in Florida|
|45.2%||Back to neck and neck|
|Iowa||Tie||52.0%||Continues to be a tight race|
|Kansas||Safe Trump||1.3%||No new polling|
|Louisiana||Safe Trump||0.6%||No new polling|
|Maine 2||Safe Biden|
|99.0%||Moved to Safe Biden after reviewing polling in Maine 2 and wider Maine|
|Michigan||Safe Biden||100%||Biden back in strong control here|
|Minnesota||Safe Biden||100%||Continues to show good polling for Biden|
|Missouri||Safe Trump||0%||No new polling|
|Montana||Safe Trump||0%||New polling confirms clear Trump lead|
|Nebraska 2||Safe Biden||98.9%||No new polling|
|Nevada||Strong Biden||89.8%||No new polling|
|North Carolina||Strong Biden||87.6%||No new polling|
|Ohio||Strong Trump||16.1%||No new polling|
|Pennsylvania||Safe Biden||100%||Further polling confirms Biden’s safety here|
|South Carolina||Safe Trump||0.8%||No new polling|
|Texas||Strong Biden||90.0%||In desperate need of new polling to confirm position|
|Virginia||Safe Biden||100%||Continued strong polling for Biden|
|Wisconsin||Safe Biden||100%||Continued clear water for Biden|
Probability of Biden Winning State
Presidential Election Forecast Philosophy
Our US Presidential Election forecast is based on polling in individual states. We run a monte-carlo simulation across the entire country and then calculate the probability of each candidate winning each state or electoral district (in the case of Maine and Nebraska). From this we allocate Electoral College votes State by State giving a final total for each candidate.
Do you allocate whole States / Districts to Candidates?
As we approach Election Day, our Nowcast now moves to a full Monte Carlo simulation of the whole country. From this Nowcast onwards our seat forecast is based on allocating the total EC votes for each State / District to the candidate who “wins” in the simulation. From this we produce a probability distribution of likely outcomes.
What do you mean by Strong / Safe / Soft?
We allocate a State a grade on the following basis
Safe – 95% or greater chance of winning or all State’s EC votes allocated to one candidate in EC allocation
Strong – 70% to 95% chance of winning
Soft – 55% to 70% chance of winning
Tie – Less that 55% chance of winning for either candidate
Sites like FiveThirtyEight have a higher probability of Trump winning. What are you doing wrong?
Nothing! 538 uses a different methodology than we do and they are also producing a forecast of polling day, whereas we issue NowCasts (what the result would be today).
Can you tell me what the probability of a certain event happening is?
Sure. We provide the most interesting probabilites above, but it’s easy to calculate things like how likely Biden is to win Texas, Ohio and Florida (5.6% as of this morning). Leave a comment below if there is a particular probability you want us to share with you.