Polling Day – 6 hours to go.
The following forecast is based around opinion polling data from surveys undertaken up to the 6th of May 2015. It does not include any data taken on the 7th of May and should not be understood to be giving any indication of how electors in the UK have actually voted today.
This is the latest of our forecasts for the UK General Election in 2015. To see our methodology click here. To read a note on our updated forward looking projection methodology, click here.
Unless there are any last minute polls, we do not expect to publish any more forecasts.
Forecast
We agree with a number of commentators that the polling results published over the past 24 hours indicate a late movement of support towards the Labour Party.
Changes indicated from this morning’s forecast.
| % Vote | Seats | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 33.87% (-0.13%) | 271 (-2) |
| Labour | 33.79% (-0.07%) | 274 (+1) |
| UKIP | 12.94% (+0.25%) | 2 (nc) |
| Liberal Democrats | 9.27% (+0.03%) | 27 (+1) |
| Green | 4.80% (+0.44%) | 1 (nc) |
| SNP | 4.23% (+0.01%) | 53 (nc) |
| PC | 0.61% (-0.01%) | 3 (nc) |
| Others inc. Speaker (GB) | 1 (nc) | |
| Irish | 18 |
Specific Seat Probabilities
Specific seat probabilities can be added as requested.