Forecast #GE2019 – 4th September 2019   Recently updated !


This is our latest forecast for a potential October 2019 General Election in the UK.

The forecast below is our standard forecast. It is based on a General Election occuring on the day of the forecast.

What does your forecast show? – We try to give as much information as possible, but only where it is statistically significant. We show a 50% confidence interval on the regional vote share for the major parties and the mid-point of the range of likely seat possibilites.

What do you use for your forecast? – We use all the latest polling data, where available. We also look at the betting markets and other information to help guide our forecast. We calculate the interaction between the support for the parties on as local a level as statistically possible and then use this to run a Monte Carlo simulation of the election.

What do you predict will happen in Seat X? What is the probability of Party Y having more votes than Z? – As we approach the election we reduce uncertainity in our model and are able to answer questions like this. Whilst we do not automatically publish a prediction for each seat, we can indicate a most likely outcome if required and also probabilities of victory for each candidate.

I want to ask a question / get in touch – Write a comment below to get in touch.

Key Features

The overall summary of our forecast is “Narrow Majority for the Conservatives”.

Our forecast indicates that Boris Johnson will achieve a narrow majority but not enough to be sure of passing legislation as required. This majority is achieved by an increase in seats in England and Wales (including London) to offset a collapse in Scotland.

We see evidence of a collapse in the Labour Party’s support across the country to a position where they are likely to land behind the Liberal Democrats in votes outside London and Wales. Despite this, Labour will win at least five times as many seats as the Liberal Democrats due to the First Past the Post System (though the Liberal Democrats themselves benefit from this in Scotland).

There has been relatively little polling in the past week. We expect a large amount of new polling over the weekend which will help to improve the accuracy of the forecast. In particular, our Wales forecast is lacking robust data.

Our Northern Ireland forecast is based on limited data, primarily a poll from Lucid Point last month.

UK Forecast

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2017
 Conservatives31.8% (30.1% – 33.5%)325 – 331+8 to +14
 Labour20.7% (20.2% – 21.2%)194 – 206-68 to -56
 SNP3.5%47 – 51+12 to +16
Liberal Democrats20.9% (18.6% – 23.2%)37 – 51+25 to +39
Brexit Party15.1% (14.9% – 15.3%)1 – 7+1 to +7
Plaid Cymru0.6%3 – 5-1 to +1
Green4.3% (4.1% – 4.5%)0 -2-1 to +1
Speaker 1 
Northern Irish 18 

Most likely result – Conservative Majority of 13 (assumes 1 Speaker and 6 Sinn Fein MPs who will not sit)

We have specific Welsh and Scottish forecasts as well.

Scotland

Party% VoteForecastChange on 2015
SNP42.2% (38.4% – 46.0%)47 – 51+12 to +16
Conservatives20.3% (18.6% – 22.0%)3 – 7-10 to -6
Labour15.5% (12.8% – 18.2%)0 – 2-7 to -5
Liberal Democrats12.3% (10.6% – 14.0%)3 – 5-1 to +1
Greens3.7% (2.5% – 4.9%)  
Brexit Party5.7% (4.4% – 7.0%)  

Most Likely Result – SNP Majority of Seats

Wales

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2015
Conservatives 33.7% 18 – 24+10 to +16
Labour25.0% 14 – 20-14 to -8
Plaid Cymru11.1% 3 – 5-1 to +1
Liberal Democrats10.4% 0 – 20 to +2
Brexit Party10.8%   
Greens8.7%   

Most Likely Result – Conservative Majority of Seats

London

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2015
Labour30.7%37 – 39-12 to -10
Conservatives30.1%28 – 30+7 to +9
Liberal Democrats21.7% 5 – 7+2 to +4
Brexit Party10.1%
Greens6.8%

Most Likely Result – Labour Majority of Seats

Northern Ireland

Party% VoteForecastChanges on 2015
DUP29.1%8 – 10-2 to 0
Sinn Fein25.0%5 – 7-2 to 0
Alliance24.1%1 – 3+1 to +3
UUP9.1%0 – 20 to +2
SDLP8.0%0
Independent 1

Most Likely Result – DUP Plurality

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