We have updated our EWMA analysis. The details are below.
- There is clear statistical evidence that UKIP have bounced back from their low of early to mid April
- Although we need one more day’s data to show it on the chart, the Conservatives have moved back up to a new band oscillating around a polling value of 34%
- Despite this movement in the Conservative’s polling band, there is little evidence of an impact on the differential between the Conservative and Labour vote shares.
- The slight recovery in Green vote share from the exposure in the debates appears now to be dissipating.